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fxus63 kict 300443 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1143 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

issued at 918 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A large upper low continues to make slow progress across the
forecast area at this time. The low is currently centered just east
of McPherson. Wrap around showers on the backside of the upper low
have diminished some, as moisture transport on the north side of the
low has decreased some. But still seeing areas of light rain or
drizzle for areas from kict north to ksln. Expect the upper low to
continue to make slow progress into ern Kansas and wrn MO late tonight
into early Thu morning, with a possible up tick in the wrap around
showers by around 09-12z/Thu as moisture transport on the north side
of the low increases again. So will keep likely pops going for this
light precip for the overnight hours, especially across central Kansas
as the upper low slowly makes its way east. Areas from kict NE to
ktop may see the wraparound rain become more widespread early on Thu

Low level instability has slowly shifted east, so not expecting
anymore heavy downpours or embedded thunder with mainly light quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts for the overnight hours.



Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

nearly stacked low will slowly move east through Thursday. Expect
an uptick in storms until sunset as instability increases in warm
sector where surface heating has/will occur. Decent wind profile
and about 1000 j/kilogram cape now and slightly more over the next
1-2 hours, will likely result in several strong and a few severe
storms in southeast Kansas. With time, wind profile becomes less
favorable for tornadoes. Extensive clouds will persist on Thursday
with a few thunderstorms under cool pool aloft on Thursday. Given
clouds, warmup on Thursday will be limited.


Dry weather expected on Friday as upper ridging traverses the area.
GFS is considerably more agressive with moisture return/precipitation
on Saturday, but suspicion is that onset is way too early, more
likely developing/confined to western third of forecast area
through sunset Saturday. Precipitation becomes increasingly
likely Saturday night, with increasing support aloft and front
moving into the area. -Howerton

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Closed low moves south of the area to start the week with some
uncertainty how far north to spread precipitation. Another system
will move into the area on Tuesday-Tuesday night, but suspect GFS
is a bit too fast/agressive with the quantitative precipitation forecast early on Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A large storm system will lead to continued poor aviation conditions
for the next 24 hours, as this system lifts east-northeast with IFR
cigs and pockets of LIFR prevailing across much of the area through
the upcoming period. The main concern into the early morning hours
will be the wrap around light rain or drizzle in the comma head of
the upper low as it moves slowly to the east overnight. This will
lead to a wind shift to the north-northwest with some gusts of 25 to
30 knots. Low clouds will linger into the morning hours on Thu with
some breaks late in the day on Thursday with portions of central Kansas
actually seeing cigs becoming MVFR and VFR by Thu evening.



Fire weather...
issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Periodic rounds of precipitation and increasing Greenup will
result in limited fire threats this period. -Howerton


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 41 52 38 60 / 60 50 0 0
Hutchinson 40 52 36 57 / 70 50 0 0
Newton 41 50 36 57 / 80 70 0 0
Eldorado 42 49 37 59 / 80 70 0 0
Winfield-kwld 43 52 37 63 / 50 50 0 0
Russell 39 53 36 53 / 80 10 0 0
Great Bend 40 54 35 54 / 80 10 0 0
Salina 40 51 36 55 / 70 70 0 0
McPherson 40 51 36 56 / 70 60 0 0
Coffeyville 48 53 39 64 / 50 60 10 0
Chanute 48 52 40 61 / 60 80 20 0
Iola 48 51 40 59 / 60 80 20 0
Parsons-kppf 48 52 40 63 / 60 70 10 0


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


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