Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
333 am CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016

Short term...(today through Friday night)
issued at 327 am CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Today-tonight:
anticipating confidence to increase for this period relative to
24 hours ago, but opposite has happened. Ongoing weakening storms
in the vicinity of khlc will likely push outflow into central Kansas.
Meanwhile rap/NAM/hrrr all generate fairly impressive cape and
very little/no cinh by 15-18 UTC in southern KS, although just
arriving 0600 UTC NAM has much different solution. Narrow mid level
ridge will likely further weaken ongoing storms, now primary
being fed off cold pool and veering 850mb-700mb winds. Chances for
precipitation look slim/mainly north of I-70 at 1200 UTC and
suspect surface boundary will hang up somewhere in central Kansas this
morning. Think this could provide focus for storms to develop this
afternoon, or they may wait until near sunset when upper trough
approaches. The other unknown is potential for storms to develop
in Flint Hills/southeast Kansas in deeper moisture. It is not obvious
that there will be anything to initiate this convection until
later tonight, barring some sort of Gravity wave/bore. Models are also
hinting at storms behind the upper trough late tonight, which is
possible, but would be dependent on good 850mb-700mb warm air
advection. This may be dependent on how widespread/robust initial
storms are. Sufficient cape for severe storms appears likely with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

Thursday-friday:
appears that precipitation will be limited to areas east of I-35
during the day, either with lingering morning precipitation or
isolated afternoon storms in deeper moisture. The former seems
more likely. Models tonight are playing up the mesoscale convective system potential for
Thursday night mainly tracking west of I-35, and then again
Friday night mainly east of I-35. Given northwest flow regime,
confidence is fairly good there would be storms both nights, but
track is less certain. Also appears to be extensive clouds on
Friday, which should limit maxes. -Howerton

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 327 am CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

One more shot at an mesoscale convective system Sunday morning...most likely in southeast
Kansas. Dry conditions anticipated for remainder of this period as
ridge builds into the plains. This should result in an uptick in
temperatures and dry weather on Monday-Tuesday. Highs on Monday-
Tuesday are likely conservative and based on thicknesses, at least
some triple digits seem likely in the western half of the forecast
area. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1203 am CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

There's renewed potl for ~1500 ft stratus to spread acrs most of
cntrl & SC Kansas twd daybreak as weak east-southeast flow conts. Possess
sufficient confidence to place most terminals (spcly kict, khut, &
ksln) in MVFR cig status from ~10-14z. Cigs shud fairly quickly to
~3,000 ft 16-18z. West/ dense cirriform debris from thunderstorms and rain ocrg FM cntrl
Nebraska to the Colorado/Kansas bdr the potl for br aprs minimal for cntrl Kansas
twd ~10z but wl 'air' on side of caution & assign 5sm br to cntrl
Kansas terminals.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 92 72 92 70 / 20 30 10 60
Hutchinson 92 72 91 69 / 20 30 10 60
Newton 90 71 90 69 / 30 40 10 50
Eldorado 90 71 90 69 / 20 30 20 50
Winfield-kwld 92 72 92 70 / 20 20 20 50
Russell 93 68 90 67 / 40 40 10 60
Great Bend 93 70 92 67 / 30 30 10 60
Salina 93 71 92 69 / 40 40 10 50
McPherson 91 71 90 68 / 30 40 10 60
Coffeyville 91 73 92 71 / 20 20 30 30
Chanute 91 72 90 71 / 20 20 30 30
Iola 91 71 90 70 / 20 30 30 30
Parsons-kppf 91 72 91 71 / 20 20 30 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...pjh
long term...pjh
aviation...eps

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations