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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
641 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Two areas of concern, when it comes to convective potential for late
this afternoon through tonight.

First area is over the Flint Hills and srn Kansas where pesky 200% of
normal precip water (pw) axis continues to lead to widely scattered
showers ahead of a weak impulse in the northwest flow. Will keep some low
pops across srn KS for a widely scattered diurnally driven
strong/severe storm chance late this afternoon, in this weakly
capped and unstable environment.

Second area of concern, will be more substantial severe storm chance
for the evening hours. Already seeing a substantial complex of
storm across SW neb, at this time, ahead of the main shortwave
currently moving out of Panhandle of neb. Expect this convection
in SW neb to move into northwest and north central Kansas to become more
vigorous as the afternoon progresses, as this shortwave drops southeast
into northwest Kansas and runs into some convergent upslope flow near kgld,
where SBCAPE values of 2500-3000 j/kg will be located. Bulk shear
in this area actually improves to around 40-45 kts this
afternoon/this evening, which suggests as this convection grows
upscale, it will probably be severe. This convection will probably
congeal into some sort of complex of storms (mcs) early this
evening. The big question is once this complex develops to the NW,
how will it impact the forecast area. Current hi-res model
solutions differ on how this system will evolve, but most models
suggest a S-southeast movement, but differ on how strong/severe it will
be as it moves south. Think areas west of I- 135 still have a
chance of some severe/damaging downburst winds this evening, and
even some quarter size hail if a storm can maintain some supercell
characteristics. But think the higher end severe threat will stay
west of the forecast area. Will continue to play up the severe
chance for western sections for this evening, but this threat may
be highly conditional on track of the mesoscale convective system.

Plan on keeping likely pops for most of the wrn half of the forecast
area overnight as remnants of any sort of complex moves across the
area. Will also keep some solid chance pops into southeast Kansas into Fri
morning, as remnant showers/storms may make more of an easterly turn
by Fri morning.

Fri: some uncertainty on how Fri will play out, as far as pops
are concerned, as leftover cloud debris from the overnight
convection may remain across most of the southern half of the
forecast area until midday Fri. Also expect any outflow boundary
will push south into nrn OK. Will keep some low pops across southern Kansas
in case clouds clear out and afternoon heating leads to an
afternoon storm chance. Anything that can develop in this moist
environment will be isolated in nature. Some relatively drier air
will shift into central KS, so expect most of central Kansas to have a
rather pleasant Summer day with Max temps in the lower 80s.

Models suggest that the OK outflow may try to venture back to the
north as a warm front for late Fri evening. Low level moisture
transport in the Texas Panhandle increases over the top of this boundary
and the mid level baroclinic zone expected to be situated from northwest Kansas
to south central Kansas. So could see some nocturnal convection develop
across SW or S. Central Kansas late Fri evening or Fri night, possibly
impacting the srn half of the forecast area through Sat morning.

Sat: main baroclinic zone and surface warm front will progress
across the forecast area on Sat, as warm advection gets under way
across the wrn half of the forecast area. So plan on keeping the
highest pops across the ern half of the forecast area, as the
elevated mixed layer increases the cap over central Kansas. Expect the
greatest shower/storm coverage to be to the NE of the forecast area,
where the warm advection will be the strongest and the cap the
weakest.

Ketcham

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The warm advection really gets going for the end of the
weekend, with upper ridge in The Rockies building east into the
plains for the beginning of the work week. This will lead to the
stifling heat returning to the plains. Expect Max temps to climb
back into the upper 90s to around 100. Will also see heat index
values climb to around 100-102 on Sunday and climb to 100-105 by
mom/Tue, as surface dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across the ern
half of the forecast area. So by the end of the weekend, may have to
once again consider some heat headlines. As the ridge builds across
the area most of the the convective chances will push well to the northwest
and north of the area.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Thunderstorms will continue to develop south and east within the
instability axis across south central Kansas this evening. Very strong
winds of 60-70 mph will accompany the stronger storms. Transient
MVFR/IFR may also develop under the more intense activity. The
storm complex may begin to move out of the area by 06-08z with VFR
prevailing thereafter.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 70 85 70 88 / 70 40 40 30
Hutchinson 69 84 69 88 / 70 30 40 20
Newton 69 83 68 87 / 70 40 40 30
Eldorado 70 84 70 87 / 70 40 40 30
Winfield-kwld 72 86 71 89 / 60 40 40 30
Russell 66 83 66 87 / 70 30 30 20
Great Bend 67 84 67 88 / 70 30 30 20
Salina 69 85 68 88 / 80 30 30 20
McPherson 68 84 68 87 / 70 30 30 20
Coffeyville 72 87 71 88 / 40 40 40 30
Chanute 71 84 70 87 / 40 40 40 30
Iola 70 84 70 86 / 40 40 30 30
Parsons-kppf 71 85 71 88 / 40 40 40 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...Ketcham
long term...Ketcham
aviation...mwm

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