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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
635 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Early morning convective complex has moved well south of the
forecast area, with a bubble high currently over most of the
forecast area with pleasant late July temps. Still seeing some
showers continuing to fester over western Kansas at this time, and feel
like this area may see the showers become more surface based and
more convective as the afternoon wears on.

As the evening progresses, low level moisture transport looks to
increase over the Texas/OK Panhandle into SW Kansas. This will probably
lead to the convection becoming more widespread either over southeast Colorado or
SW Kansas late this evening, forming into a some sort of southeast moving
complex of showers and embedded storms late tonight into early Sat
morning. Most of the hi-res solutions show most of the showers
associated with the complex will be more of a glancing blow to
portions of south central Kansas as it dives southeast in OK. So will go with
solid chance pops in south central Kansas with lessor pops further to
the NE. Expecting the showers/storms to actually wane as it pushes
further east, as the elevated instability diminishes rapidly as the
showers move east by early Sat morning.

Sat-Sat night: the weak northwest flow pattern remains around until at
least Sat, with warm advection increasing for areas to the west of
the forecast area Sat afternoon. Expect to see some morning light
shower remnants over srn Kansas for the morning hours on Sat, with dry
conditions for most of the daytime hours. But as the afternoon
wears on, a warm frontal boundary will lift north across the
forecast area. Some uncertainty on how Sat afternoon will evolve as
most locations will see an increasing elevated mixed layer, capping
off any convective chances as the warm front moves north. Think some
strong/severe convection will develop to the northwest of the forecast
area, with the potential for some of this convection to move into
portions of central Kansas for Sat evening. An unstable airmass and bulk
shear of 30-40 kts suggests that a few strong/severe storms may move
across central Kansas Sat evening.

As Sat evening progresses, warm advection will increase across most
of the forecast area from SW to NE, with moisture transport in the
850-700h layer increasing as well. Think this will lead to showers
and storms becoming more widespread along I-70 and areas east-NE of
ksln late Sat night. If the moisture transport is strong enough, the
increasing convection may be even further north into srn neb. If a
complex of storms does get going across NE Kansas or srn neb, S-southeast
movement may lead to this complex clipping southeast Kansas by Sun morning, so
will leave some pops in for early sun in this area.

Ketcham

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

The warm advection really gets going for the end of the
weekend, with upper ridge in The Rockies building east into the
plains for the beginning of the work week. This will lead to the
stifling heat returning to the plains. Expect Max temps to climb
back above normal for Sunday, but with lots of surface moisture to
burn off, think the real hot days will hold off till Mon-Wed. Expect
Max temps to climb back into the upper 90s to around 100 for Mon-
Wed. Will also see heat index values climb to around 100-102 on
Sunday and climb to 100-105 by Mon/Tue, as surface dewpoints remain
in the lower 70s across the ern half of the forecast area. So by the
end of the weekend, may have to once again consider some heat
headlines. As the ridge builds across the area most of the the
convective chances will push well to the northwest and north of the area
through at least the middle of the week.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Light winds and VFR will prevail through 08-09z across the
forecast area. There is some concern that a few storms could
drift out of western Kansas impacting portions of south central Kansas
late tonight or toward the early morning hours on Sat but
confidence remains low at this time.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 70 87 72 94 / 30 30 30 10
Hutchinson 68 87 71 94 / 20 20 30 10
Newton 67 86 71 92 / 20 30 40 10
Eldorado 68 86 71 92 / 20 30 40 20
Winfield-kwld 70 87 73 94 / 40 30 30 10
Russell 66 87 69 95 / 20 20 40 10
Great Bend 67 88 70 96 / 30 20 30 10
Salina 67 89 71 95 / 20 20 50 20
McPherson 67 87 71 93 / 20 20 40 10
Coffeyville 70 87 72 92 / 10 30 40 30
Chanute 68 86 71 90 / 10 30 50 30
Iola 67 86 70 90 / 10 20 50 40
Parsons-kppf 69 86 72 91 / 10 30 40 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...Ketcham
long term...Ketcham
aviation...mwm

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