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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
635 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

The main challenge is convective chances the next few days with a
return to seasonably warm temperatures. A modest recovery in the
airmass in the wake of the morning mesoscale convective system may be sufficient to allow
a few showers/storms to develop toward 00z across southern Kansas.
Otherwise, somewhat drier/more stable air will continue to advect
across the I-70 corridor tonight into Tuesday. Diurnal heating
will result in MLCAPE values approaching 2000 j/kg for locations
along/southeast of the Turnpike on Tuesday afternoon, so will keep
a modest pop in these areas. Low level moisture return from
Tuesday night into the mid-week periods in combination with a
periodically disturbed northwest flow regime aloft across the
northern plains/Midwest may support somewhat better chances for
convection across central and eastern Kansas.

Darmofal

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A transition from a periodically wet northwest flow regime aloft
and seasonably warm temperatures to a hot and dry pattern looks to
develop by late in the weekend into early next week as the upper
ridge builds in earnest again across the Central Plains.

Ked

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Main aviation concern will be fog potential late tonight into Tue
morning.

Surface high pressure is centered over western Iowa with a weak
stationary front draped across northern OK/northern Arkansas. The
better shower and storm chances look to stay generally south of
the forecast area closer to the surface boundary. Main concern
will be fog potential late tonight. Things going for fog tonight
would be clearing skies and light upslope flow with the low level
moisture profile not all that favorable. So for now will insert
some 5-6sm and continue to monitor trends with confidence low in
widespread fog. Outside of early morning fog, confidence is high
that VFR conditions will be in place.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 71 91 71 91 / 20 20 10 20
Hutchinson 68 91 69 91 / 10 10 10 20
Newton 69 90 70 90 / 10 10 10 20
Eldorado 70 89 70 89 / 20 20 10 30
Winfield-kwld 72 90 72 90 / 20 20 20 20
Russell 67 92 68 92 / 10 10 20 20
Great Bend 67 92 68 92 / 10 10 20 20
Salina 69 93 70 93 / 10 10 20 30
McPherson 68 91 69 91 / 10 10 10 30
Coffeyville 72 91 73 91 / 20 30 20 30
Chanute 71 90 72 90 / 20 20 10 30
Iola 70 90 71 90 / 10 20 10 30
Parsons-kppf 71 90 72 90 / 20 20 20 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...ked
long term...ked
aviation...rbl

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