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afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
236 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 233 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Pressure gradient will continue to relax early this morning as the
large storm system from yesterday rapidly pulls to the NE of the
area. Water vapor imagery shows a a vort lobe in the Dakotas
dropping south out of the northern plains later today, but lack of
moisture on the backside of the departing system will lead to some
increasing mid level clouds over NE Kansas at is drops south late
tonight or early on Wed.

An upper ridge will build across The Rockies by this evening through
Wed. Downslope west-northwest flow associated with this ridge will lead to dry
conditions and seasonal temps both days.

A warming trend will return to the region for Thu and Fri as the
ridge over The Rockies flattens out with zonal flow across most of
the plains. This will lead to southerly surface flow and Max temps
warming well above normal.

Ketcham

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 233 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A quick hitting system looks to move across the northern plains for
Fri afternoon into Fri night. Due to quick nature of the system,
low level moisture will be slow return to the area as the system
approaches, with areas east of the Flint Hills having a small chance
of rain or rain possibly changing to snow for Fri night. Not
expecting any impacts with very light amounts of wintry precip
expected. Latest European model (ecmwf) looks a little colder behind this system
than the GFS suggests, with the GFS not suggesting much of a cool
down after this quick hitting system moves east.

Medium range models all suggest that weak ridging returns to the
plains for the rest of the weekend, with seasonal or slightly above
normal temps.

Ketcham

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Upper low is currently moving into northern Illinois with the surface
low stacked in the same general location. MVFR ceilings will exit
far southeast Kansas in the next couple of hours leaving VFR
conditions in place area wide through this taf period. West-
northwest winds will be on the decrease as morning hours approach
and will remain out of the northwest through the next 24 hours.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 233 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Elevated southwesterly winds, cured grasses, warm
temperatures, and low relative humidity on Thursday will result in
very high grassland fire danger across the entire area. Some areas
of central Kansas and the Flint Hills will experience very high
grassland danger Friday as well.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 47 24 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 46 23 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 45 23 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 46 24 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 49 24 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 44 20 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 45 20 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 44 23 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 44 21 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 49 25 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 46 25 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 45 25 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 48 25 53 33 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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