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fxus63 kict 212326 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Rain and thunder chances this weekend will be an issue with this
forecast, especially the timing and location. Then how hot will it
get in the latter periods will be the other focus.

The NAM and GFS models differ about 3 hours or so regarding the
timing of a cold front that will move across the forecast area late
Saturday into Sunday. This will not make any difference in highs on
Saturday but could play a role in rain chances and location.

A cold front will drop south across the forecast area Saturday
afternoon and then linger along the Kansas/OK border much of Sunday.
Ample moisture is present for precipitation, however, my concern
is whether or not enough forcing will occur to produce showers or
thunderstorms. The wind convergence is very weak and the upper
support seems to be lacking. So, with a slightly slower frontal
movement I have pushed back the chance for rain til Saturday
evening. I then lowered the chances slightly due to the lack
mechanisms to produce enough lift to produce showers or storms.
With the boundary hanging around the state line, a chance for rain
will continue along the southern parts of our forecast area
Sunday. The highs on Saturday will be another scorcher with values
ranging from the upper 90s southeast to the lower 100s NC and SC
sections. Heat indices will also reach dangerous levels. Sunday
highs will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Saturday.

With frontal passage Sunday, a return to normalcy will occur with
daytime highs through Wednesday in the lower and middle 90s. A
decent upper system will drop southeast into the forecast area overnight
Monday into Tuesday morning. With the amount of lift being forecast
with the system, this will be the best chance for rain over the next
7 days. The better chances will exist to the west of the Flint Hills
region.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Extended... highs will begin a warming trend on Wednesday from the
lower 90s into the middle and upper 90s by the weekend. Another
front will flirt with the area on Friday and into Saturday. This
will introduce a chance for rain and storms to the forecast again.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

VFR conditions expected for all taf sites across central/southern
Kansas for the next 24hrs. South winds will diminish after sunset
and prevail through the night then switch to a southwest
direction by Saturday morning. Meanwhile a weak frontal boundary
will sag slowly southward into central Kansas during the
afternoon.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 78 104 75 94 / 0 10 20 40
Hutchinson 78 105 73 93 / 0 10 20 30
Newton 78 104 74 92 / 0 10 20 30
Eldorado 77 101 74 92 / 0 10 20 40
Winfield-kwld 78 102 75 96 / 0 10 10 40
Russell 76 102 71 94 / 0 10 30 20
Great Bend 76 104 71 93 / 0 10 30 30
Salina 80 105 74 95 / 0 10 30 20
McPherson 78 104 73 93 / 0 10 20 30
Coffeyville 77 99 75 94 / 0 0 10 50
Chanute 78 99 74 93 / 0 10 20 40
Iola 77 99 74 92 / 0 10 20 40
Parsons-kppf 77 99 75 94 / 0 0 10 50

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ksz032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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