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fxus64 khun 271056 
afdhun

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
556 am CDT Mon may 27 2019

Update...
for 12z tafs.

&&

Near term...(today)
issued at 400 am CDT Mon may 27 2019

Mild conditions continue across the area early this morning, with
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Satellite imagery shows a
belt of cirrus clouds extending from northern Mexico northeastward
into the region, while water vapor imagery indicates a plume of
associated upper-level moisture extending all the way back into the
eastern Pacific. It appears as though this plume of moisture will
remain nearly stationary today, while uplift along the Mexican
Highlands will continue to generate a stream of cirrus that feeds
into the area. The cirrus may have some impact on our temperatures,
but perhaps just a couple of degrees of heating that otherwise would
occur. Although boundary layer temperatures are expected to be about
1c higher than yesterday, the slight cooling from the cirrus may end
up keeping temperatures fairly similar to yesterday. So, highs are
forecast to be generally in the low to mid 90s at most locations
again today. However, the normally warmer locations of Huntsville and
Florence/Muscle Shoals may reach the upper 90s. Muscle Shoals may
reach the record high temp of 97f today, although Huntsville is less
likely, with its record high temp of 99f.

Short term...(tonight through wednesday)
issued at 400 am CDT Mon may 27 2019

Conditions will remain fairly steady-state through Wednesday night as
a deeply stacked area of high pressure shifts only very slowly
across northern Florida to just off the East Coast. This will ensure
a continuous stream of S-SW flow and very warm temperatures across
the region. High temperatures each day are likely to continue to be
in the 90s with temperatures at or close to record highs. The
tendency for general subsidence, and a low-level diffluent flow
pattern will keep any development of showers and thunderstorms to a
minimum. Shower and thunderstorms chances were kept near or below 10
percent through this period, and low enough not to warrant mention in
the official forecast. Winds will increase each afternoon with some
gustiness out of the SW, with speeds approaching 20 miles per hour at times,
especially in the higher terrain.

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 345 am CDT Mon may 27 2019

Late in the week, the upper-low that has been stuck over the
intermountain west will finally become dislodged and shift northeast
onto the Central Plains by Thursday, and eventually the Great Lakes
region by Friday. In response, a weak front will pivot further to the
south and east across the lower Ohio Valley and into the mid-south
region. While this feature won't make it into north Alabama, the
center of the upper ridge will shift further to the south (along the
northern Gulf coast). This will allow for weaker capping and the
potential for isolated to widely scattered convection in the
afternoon along/near this convergence axis Thursday and Friday. As
the flow aloft becomes more zonal later this upcoming weekend, a
couple of weak shortwaves may ripple across the Ohio Valley. This may
be enough to trigger some more scattered convection, especially on
Sunday. Additionally, we may see an uptick in cloud cover -- in part
due to blow-off cloud cover from deep convection further to the
north along the stalled boundary. The weaker heights/thickness values
(along with the additional cloud cover) will knock temperatures back
by around 5-6 degrees as highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be
common through the first weekend in June.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 555 am CDT Mon may 27 2019

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period.
Scattered decks of high clouds will pass through the region today
and SW winds may become gusty at times, especially during the
afternoon.



&&

Hun watches/warnings/advisories...
Alabama...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

Near term...kdw
short term...kdw
long term...amp.24

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