Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
648 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016
for 00z tafs.
(issued 226 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016)
under cloudy skies sct shra, along with a few tsra, were moving
across the Tennessee Valley. Otherwise temps were mainly in the lower 80s
with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s. The pcpn was in response to an
upper wave now moving across the area.
For tonight the Tennessee Valley is along the wrn side of an upper ridge
which is centered off the sern coastline. Based on the hrrr, shra/tsra
should begin to taper off arnd 00z. Thus looking at radar trends will
keep a 40 pop in our Tennessee zones to a 20 pops along our srn border until
06z. After 06z will broadbrush the entire cwa with a 20 pops since
NAM was showing some isolated shra or tsra possible towards mrng.
Due to the thick cloud cover and cool temps today, the chc of
widespread strong storms will be very low. However cant rule out an
isolated storm or two this evening or overnight with gusty winds or
brief hvy rain.
Friday and Saturday an upper trof will continue to affect the area
with mainly aftn and evening shra/tsra. Again the threat of any severe
storms will be low. Aftn highs on both days will be slightly below
By Sunday the upper trof will begin to flatten out somewhat as a
upper ridge builds across the wrn US. Monday thru Thursday the ridge
will continue to build eastwards towards the Tennessee Valley. This will
allow temps to climb into the lower 90s.
Attm timing and coverage of pcpn during the extended portions of the
fcst will be tricky at best. Thus went with the blended models for
pops. It does look like the chc of pcpn may decrease by the middle
of next week.
for 00z tafs: low clouds are expected to continue to move across the
taf sites overnight. Have kept in MVFR ceilings at hsv and mean sea level with
vcsh until 05z. Predominant IFR ceilings and vcsh are expected at
around 05z at hsv and mean sea level and are expected to continue until around
the 13z-14z time frame. MVFR ceilings should continue until around
17z, when the lower clouds are expected to scatter with lower level
VFR ceilings expected through the end of the forecast period. Expect
that thunderstorms in the vicinity will be possible after 17z at both taf sites.
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