Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
304 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016
water vapor imagery and rap 500 mb analysis indicated upper ridging in
place across the southeast this aftn, with shortwaves riding around
the periphery, sparking convection across portions of GA/al/MS/la.
High pressure at the sfc extends swwrd from the Carolinas down into
the Texas/la border. Convection in our local County Warning Area remains rather spotty,
with a few showers/storms here and there mainly east of I-65. The bulk
of the convection associated with the approaching shortwave remains
over north/central Georgia. Convection should sputter out shortly after sunset
this evening, with some patchy fog possible in areas in the east that
receive rainfall late this aftn.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast can be divided into two
sections, of sorts: tonight through Monday, and then Tuesday through
the extended, with confidence decreasing the further you pan out in
Lows through Monday will slowly increase into the Lower/Middle 70s
with humid conditions in place (td temps in the Lower/Middle 70s).
Partly cloudy conditions will prevail through this period, with the
exception of Friday, when mostly cloudy conditions are expected as a
front meanders southward toward our County Warning Area. Friday also holds the
highest rain chances of the first half of the forecast period, with
slightly higher coverage of showers and storms expected. While
gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be possible from storms that
develop anytime from Thursday through Monday, slightly stronger
storms are possible Friday with the front in the vicinity, and
slightly higher cape values/lapse rates. Widespread severe weather is
not expected, however, gusty winds around 30-40mph will be the
primary threat. High temperatures during this time will top out in
the lower to middle 90s, and combined with the humid conditions in
place, will produce heat index values between 100-104f. This has been
highlighted in the severe weather potential statement.
The second half of the forecast can be summed up in one word:
uncertain. Longer-range models develop the currently-named 99l in
the Caribbean into a tropical system and are having a difficult time
discerning exactly where the track will be. With model guidance from
the Texas/la border ewrd to the Carolinas, will retain much of the
forecast from this time period, awaiting further clarity in future
(issued 1216 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016)
for 18z tafs: VFR conditions are expected through the taf period.
Moisture has returned to the Tennessee Valley and as a result of daytime
heating a few/scattered deck of clouds between 4-5kft has formed. Expect
clouds to hang around through sunset then dissipate. Models continue
to indicate a few isolated storms forming for areas along and east
of I-65 but not expecting storms to impact either terminal this
afternoon. Southeasterly winds will remain around 5kts this
afternoon and then taper off this evening.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Huntsville 73 93 73 93 / 10 20 10 40
Shoals 73 93 73 92 / 10 20 10 40
Vinemont 72 92 72 91 / 10 20 10 40
Fayetteville 72 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 40
Albertville 71 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 40
Fort Payne 70 91 71 91 / 10 20 10 40
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