Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 212341
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
341 PM PST sun Jan 21 2018
Update...updated air quality issues.
a weak weather system will bring a chance of light precipitation
to areas from Fresno County north tonight and Monday. A stronger
system will bring rain and mountain snow to much of the area
Wednesday night through Thursday night. High pressure builds back
over the area next weekend with dry conditions expected.
cold front approaching the region will fall apart as it arrives
later tonight. Front gets parallel to the upper flow and will
stall out across Merced County before dissipating. We have
continued to cut back pops and qpf for tonight and Monday.
Increasing clouds and increasing SW flow will limit widespread
fog development across the sjv tonight. Temperatures will also be
warmer tonight due to cloud cover.
Short wave ridge will build in over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday. Expect temperatures to increase to well above normal by
Wednesday. Potential for late night and early morning fog in the
sjv will increase as the ridge builds over the region midweek.
We are looking at another weather system to move through the area
Wednesday night and Thursday with showers spreading from north to
south across the central California interior. National guidance
is trending drier with this system. We have backed off qpf with
this system some, and moved back the timing to later Wednesday
night. Right now, the system is looking very similar to the one
that just went through US. It is a bit colder as its origins are
out of the Gulf of Alaska. We will once again see the potential of
5 to 10 inches of snow in the southern Sierra north of Kings
Canyon np above 5000 feet. We will also see a potential for
hazardous weather conditions across the Kern County mountains
including the Tehachapi Pass and the Grapevine Pass. Ice and light
snow is once again possible near Frazier Park and towards Lebec
Thursday afternoon and evening as the system moves out.
The front will move out by Friday morning with cold air advection
bringing in seasonal temps for the weekend, with an increased
possibility of fog developing once again the sjv.
areas of MVFR and local IFR conditions possible due to ceilings and
showers, with mountain obscurations over the Sierra Nevada, after
08z Monday for mainly Fresno County northward. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail across the central California interior for the next
Air quality issues...
on Monday January 22 2018... fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings and
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.