Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 221143
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
343 am PST Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis...dry weather and above normal afternoon temperatures
can be expected across the central California interior through the
Holiday weekend. Patchy fog is possible in the San Joaquin Valley
during the late night and morning hours each day.
Discussion...clear skies across central California. Some patchy fog has
developed in the Central Valley along the San Joaquin River from
Livingston to Firebaugh. Satellite images show an amplified ridge
extending from the Baja Coast north over the West Coast. While a
weak offshore prevails across S California. The strong ridge of high
pressure will provide very warm conditions across the central
California interior. Naefs model ensemble show 850mb mean
temperature over the central California coast in the warmest percentile
of the 30 year climate period for today. Thus near record high
temperatures may be possible into Thanksgiving day. Just about
anywhere in our forecast area will experience well above average
temperatures through at least Saturday. The warmest locations may
reach into the lower 80s, on both Wednesday and Thanksgiving day,
especially in the Central Valley, lower foothills, and the Kern
A short wave will move through the Pacific northwest Thursday flattening
the ridge and turning the flow more west and onshore. Thus daytime
highs are expected to lower slightly on Friday and Saturday but
will still remain well above average. Although morning and
nighttime fog is possible each day through Saturday as long as the
high pressure remains, it will likely be patchy with mild
A low pressure system will arrive later in the weekend and push
east of the region by Monday. Models coming into better consensus
and have been trending for a faster arrival, so a slight chance
precipitation and mountain snow could begin Sunday afternoon
towards the Yosemite area. The trough digs well south over central
California and bring a cold front and precipitation into the tehachapis by
Monday morning. The best chances for precipitation will be over
the Sierra Nevada towards Yosemite and Kings Canyon.
On Sunday night into Monday, northwest flow aloft will allow low
clouds to bank up along the west/northwest facing sides of the
Tehachapi Mountains and southern Sierra Nevada. So, relatively
cool weather but near seasonal levels will likely prevail for
early next week. Another ridge of high pressure arrives by next
Tuesday, but it appears not quite as strong at this time.
Record high temperatures
Nov 22nd 77/1890 80/1945
Nov 23rd 78/1932 82/2015
Nov 24th 78/1939 87/1917
in the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR in haze can be expected
during the next 24 hours. Local IFR/LIFR conditions in fog will
persist through 18z Wednesday and redevelop after 08z Thursday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Wednesday November 22 2017... unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kings County. Fireplace/wood stove burning status is: no burning
unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings... Madera... Merced
and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.