Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
215 PM PDT Friday Jul 29 2016
Synopsis...a ridge of high pressure continue to bring hot
temperatures through the weekend. Afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms are possible along the Sierra crest each
day through early next week and will possibly spread into the Kern
County mountains and desert during the weekend.
Discussion...another mostly sunny and hazy day is taking place
across our area as a large upper high pressure ridge remains
parked over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures are running fairly
close to Thursday at this time across our area and after a very
muggy morning over the Kern County deserts where several locations
remained above 80 degree f this morning, an excessive heat warning
was issued for the Kern County deserts for this afternoon and
early evening where several locations are expected to exceed the
110 degree f mark today. Radar composites are indicating a few
showers have already popped up near the southern Sierra crest
where the 12z WRF is indicating instability and convective available potential energy are
sufficient for isolated thunderstorms once again today.
Not much change is expected on Saturday as the models are
indicating status quo. Temperatures will be much above normal once
again and have issued another excessive heat warning for the Kern
County deserts for Saturday afternoon and early evening as
another muggy evening followed by another day of 110+ readings is
anticipated. One change made though is that the models have been
trending downward with the amount of mid level topical moisture
pushing into our area this weekend. Have therefore cut back on
precipitation chances for the Kern County mountains and deserts
for Saturday and Sunday although isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible each afternoon and evening along the southern
Sierra crest through the weekend where there will be sufficient
instability and orographics.
The medium range models continue to indicate an upper level
low pushing into the Pacific northwest by Monday afternoon which will
flatten the strong upper ridge that has provided our area with the
hot temepratures over the past several days. Heights and
thicknesses will lower slightly Sunday through Tuesday which will
allow for temperatures to cool slightly through the period. The
flow aloft will turn westerly by Monday and push any monsoonal
moisture well to the east of our area by Tuesday. Although
temperatures will lower some early next week, afternoon highs will
still reach the triple digits across most of the San Joaquin
Valley and Kern County deserts.
Aviation...isolated thunderstorms are expected near the Sierra
crest until 03z Saturday and again between 20z Saturday and 03z
Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...the San Joaquin Valley air pollution
control district has issued an air quality alert due to smoke
impacts in San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings,
Tulare, and the valley portion of Kern counties from the soberanes
fire. For details, please refer to the sfoaqahnx.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
excessive heat warning until 8 PM PDT this evening caz098-099.
Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 8 PM PDT Saturday