Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
235 am PDT sun Sep 25 2016
a warming trend will take place over central California through
early next week, with cooling beginning mid week into next weekend.
gradual warmup continues across the district as epac ridge builds
in from the west. Trending up 3-6 degrees today, with another 3-6
degrees on Monday as the ridge axis will be overhead.
Ridge is slow to breakdown on Tuesday as a squeeze play will
weaken the ridge from the south and the north. The south player is
a closed low that develops over northern Mexico and is progged to move
across socal. Since the ridge is over US, we won't see much from
the sub tropical system, maybe a few clouds in the Kern desert.
The northern player is a digging trough from the Gulf of Alaska. This
system will win out as it moves south into the Pacific northwest by Thursday
and across our area Friday evening. We will once again see gusty
winds and a sharp cooldown for the upcoming weekend.
Exact timing and whether or not the system will be moisture
starved as it moves south is still uncertain. Guidance is
trending drier with the system each run. We will keep it dry
through the forecast period. Get ready for another rollercoaster
ride of temperatures once again this week with temps near the
triple digits Monday and Tuesday in the sjv with a cooldown into
the mid to upper 70s by Saturday.
Mountains will see a 10-20 degree drop as well through the week,
so be ready for sub freezing min temps across the southern Sierra
above 6000 feet this weekend. It will really feel like fall out
there as cooler temps will trigger the fall colors in the
trees. Glad to see the systems becoming more active in the northern
stream and digging south across the region, hopefully we will see
one with some deeper moisture and move far enough south to bring
US some rain.
VFR conditions will prevail over the central California interior during the
next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.