Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
428 am PDT Thursday Aug 25 2016
dry weather will be the rule across the central California
interior. Temperatures will run slightly warmer than average today
and are expected to return to around average on Friday and into
clear skies across the district this morning. Water vapor imagery
show the central California interior situated in relatively dry
northwest flow between the east Pacific Ridge and a shortwave
trough dropping south from the pac northwest and Great Basin. The trough
will move into north California this afternoon and settle over California Friday.
A mid level flow from the northwest should keep much of Cedar fire smoke
out of the valley advecting it east towards the High Desert.
Additional smoke may push into the valley Friday as wind flow
aloft turns S to southeast as the trough settles over the area. Isolated
thunderstorms may be possible Friday afternoon over the High
Sierra as models show some instability and light winds along the
Sierra Nevada. Marine layer remains steady near 1500 feet along
the coast. Thus expect little marine cooling influence into the
interior. Highs today should top out at or just a degree or so
above climo. Models are similar in showing additional shortwave
energy tracking through the Great Basin and brushing our area with
a weak trough through the end of this week. Marine layer should
deepen and aid the synoptic cooling. Temperatures will trend
downward through Saturday with occasional moderate wind gusts
through the passes during the afternoon and evenings through
Reasonable model consensus continues during the first half of next
week. A weak ridge is progged to rebuild over the region behind
the exiting weak trough and ahead of a more significant trough
developing along the northwest US coast Tuesday into Wednesday.
This will push temperatures back to a few degrees above seasonal
averages during the period with continued dry conditions.
smoke from wildfires will reduce visibilities to MVFR in some areas.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
please see sfoaqahnx
The San Joaquin Valley air pollution control district is continuing
an air quality alert due to smoke impacts from the Cedar wildfire
in Tulare and the valley portion of Kern County.This air quality
alert is in effect until Thursday afternoon August 25.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.