Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 231053
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
353 am PDT sun Jul 23 2017
temperatures will rise back to above normal levels this weekend
as high pressure strengthens over the region. Dry conditions will
prevail this weekend except for the possibility of an isolated
thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada. A moist southerly
flow will bring a chances of thunderstorms to the mountains and
Kern deserts on Monday and Tuesday.
temperatures will warm a few degrees today under the ridge pattern
over the region, with the San Joaquin Valley, foothill and desert
areas reaching triple digits this afternoon. With the combination
of smoke from wildfires, heat and light winds, an air quality
alert remains in effect for most of the central California
Model upper-air analysis and water-vapor satellite imagery
continue to indicate a weak disturbance off the northern
California coast this morning. This weak disturbance is expected
to be right along the northern California coast by Monday morning
where it will remain through Tuesday before lifting northeast
Wednesday. This feature will allow for a more southerly flow
pattern over the district, which will allow some mid level
moisture to move into the region. Enough moisture made its way
into the Sierra Nevada Saturday for a few thunderstorms to develop
near the crest late in the afternoon. With additional moisture
gradually moving in today and Monday, the chance of thunderstorms
will increase. Thunderstorms will remain over the higher
elevations of the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and evening. Then
the chance of thunderstorms spreads over most of the mountain and
desert areas Monday and Tuesday before retreating back to the High
This weak disturbance will also allow temperatures in the San
Joaquin Valley and foothills to edge back down into the upper 90s
mainly across the North Valley on Monday and then throughout the
valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As the disturbance moves northeast Wednesday, the ridge will once
again strengthen over California. Cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms continuing over the Sierra Nevada crest Thursday,
but expect mainly dry conditions Thursday through Saturday. The
building ridge will temperatures to once again warm back to 100 to
105 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley for the last half of the
areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities in smoke from area
wildfires. Isolated thunderstorms near the southern Sierra crest
between 20z today and 05z Mon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
please see sfoaqahnx
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.