Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 161146
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California
346 am PST Tue Jan 16 2018
a cold front will move southward across the area could bring a
chance of light precipitation mainly from Fresno County northward.
A colder storm will bring rain and mountain snow to the region
Thursday through Friday.
another morning of dense fog across the San Joaquin Valley ahead
of a frontal zone with possible light precipitation early this
morning. Currently, precipitation is confined to northern
California just north of the Merced/Yosemite area. With weak
forcing expected today, will keep the potential for precipitation
from Merced, Mariposa counties and Yosemite np at a minimum with
orographic lift allowing for measurable amounts over the
mountains. Otherwise, the lack of precipitation over the rest of
the district will keep fog in place for one more day and
potentially through the remainder of the week.
GFS mod-trend along with other deterministic models keeps the
first disturbance north of the central California interior along
with the associated precipitation and mixing of the atmosphere.
These models were showing high confidence in keeping the
precipitation confined to areas from Merced, Mariposa and Yosemite
northward today. In addition, integrated water vapor transport
has a plume of moisture aimed at the Pacific northwest and
northern California. As the moisture plume shifts southward, it
diminishes to minimal amounts. This trend lessens the potential
for precipitation accumulation over central California today.
Therefore, will see little change in the weather pattern over
central California until the end of the week as a short-wave ridge
sits over the area for several days.
The main focus will remain on the storm expected to hit central
California by the end of the week. GFS mod-trend continues to show
little noise in the solution of a deeper trough timed for the end
of the week. While minimal uncertainty begins to appear Friday
night, this time frame is toward the end of the storm passage.
Therefore, with little uncertainty in the timing and strength of
the disturbance, will carry high probability of measurable of rain
and snow for the late Thursday night through early Friday morning
time frame as snow could reach almost reach the 3000 foot line
toward the end the storm later on Friday into early Saturday
morning. During the bulk of the storm on Friday will see liquid
values of an inch over the mountains and up to a quarter an inch
for the Lower Valley locations. The inch of liquid over the
mountains will translate into a possible foot of new snow over the
Sierra from Yosemite to Kings Canyon. Afterward, a northwesterly
flow aloft will keep the area unsettled with spotty showers Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Ridging during the latter half
of the weekend will terminate the precipitation as yet another
storm moves into the region toward the beginning of next week.
Will introduce a slight chance of possible precipitation as
uncertainty is still too high to determine the strength of the
widespread IFR conditions in low clouds and mist/haze will persist
in the San Joaquin Valley with areas of LIFR in fog until 20z
Tuesday. A storm pushing into the area will introduce light
precipitation with more widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere
across the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Tuesday January 16 2018...firepalce/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings and Tulare
counties. Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
dense fog advisory until 11 am PST this morning caz089>092.