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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
959 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016

Update...
no real changes planned for the forecast this evening. Keeping an
eye on the activity over the Arkansas/la/tex region but have noticed a
general weakening of these storms as they move to the S/SW in the
last hour or so. The rest of the night should remain quiet. 41

&&

Previous discussion... /issued / 359 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016

Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon have been largely
relegated to areas along and east of Interstate 45, with stronger
cells producing wind gusts around 20 to 30 miles per hour. (Ellington field
reported a 32 miles per hour wind gust from a collapsing thunderstorm shortly
before 2 PM CDT.) Expect this activity to persist through late
afternoon, before dissipating with loss of heating.

Afternoon surface analysis does show several outflow boundaries
draped around the Houston Metro from earlier convection as well as
a larger, remnant boundary draped across central Texas from the
storms that moved across the region yesterday. This feature has
served as a focusing mechanism for development farther north of
the region today and have kept a mention of isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for areas north of a Brenham to
Cleveland line in case any of these storms are able to propagate
south along a smaller outflow boundary. Otherwise, another dry
night expected across the region with patchy fog possible
generally west of Interstate 45 (and outside of the Houston metro)
Saturday morning with morning lows falling into the mid 70s to low
80s.

With the region remaining in a relative weakness between two
ridges through the weekend, isolated to scattered diurnally driven
thunderstorms will remain possible across the region. Best chances
look to remain closer to the coast where deeper moisture resides,
but as we saw today smaller scale boundaries may contribute to
greater development farther north. Expect high temperatures to
remain in the low to upper 90s into the beginning of next week,
with widespread heat index values also creeping back up into the
100 to 107 degree range.

Increasing mid-level heights at the beginning to middle of next
week as broad upper ridging over the region becomes established
will limit daily rain chances and allow the region to return to a
hot and generally dry pattern. Expect above normal high
temperatures to greet the region during the first week of August.

While this is beyond the forecast period, some of the medium
range guidance is indicating the possibility of a surface low
pressure system moving into the western Gulf of Mexico late next
week into next weekend. However, it's still too far out to say
with any certainty if this forecast system would have any impact
on southeast Texas if it makes it into the Gulf. The important
thing to keep in mind is that August to October represents the
climatological peak of hurricane season and residents should keep
up with the forecast a part of their daily routine.

Huffman

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 76 98 77 98 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 77 97 78 97 77 / 10 30 10 30 10
Galveston (gls) 82 92 82 92 81 / 10 20 10 20 10

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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