Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 khgx 161418
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
918 am CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
morning aircraft soundings out of Houston show strong subsidence
above 950 mb. Expect today be dry and hot with highs in the upper
80s along the coast to mid to upper 90s inland as a result.
Saharan dust has also settled in and will result in hazy
conditions across southeast Texas today. Updated forecast for
latest observations with no other changes made.
Previous discussion... /issued 400 am CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/
the GOES total precipitable water product shows values have dropped to ~1.2"
across the County Warning Area. This along with increasing subsidence should keep
precip chances pretty close to zero today...and for the next week.
Other than adding the mention of haze to the forecast today, the
rest of it was left virtually the same.
Upper level ridge will build in from the west throughout the week
bringing increasingly hot conditions to the region...with the hottest
days probably between thurs-sun. Though temperatures will likely
be hotter well inland, it appears drier air mix down during the
daytime hours keeping heat index values below the 108 degree heat
advisory threshold. What has happened in the past during similar
patterns, however, is areas closer to the coast will get a 2-3
hour spike of high heat indices once the seabreeze passes thru
and dewpoints shoot up. It's still too early to say, but it's just
something to keep an eye on later this week. 47
generally light S/SW winds will prevail the next several days as
strong surface high pressure lingers over the north central Gulf.
Shower/thunderstorm development expected to be very limited/zero
through the remainder of this week as well. Low seas should also
persist and no significant concerns are expected at this time.41
brief/patchy fog will remain possible over inland areas this mor-
ning...but the isolated showers over the coastal waters that have
featured these past several morning are now absent. Slightly low-
ered pws and building high pressures over the Gulf should help to
keep things quiet across southeast Texas for this afternoon. So will likely
keep the mention of thunderstorms in the vicinity out...but may sneak in a mention of haze
given the expected influx of Saharan dust. 41
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 97 75 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (iah) 96 77 97 77 97 / 10 0 10 0 10
Galveston (gls) 91 82 92 82 93 / 10 0 10 0 10