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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Aviation...
yet another complicated aviation forecast today with broad
tropical wave and associated moisture feed into sern Texas. Models
continue to bring widespread MVFR for all terminals through the
period, however timing and actual location of the more intense
storms/bands difficult to pinpoint. Will keep mostly MVFR
conditions in place, although breaks of VFR will also occur for
most locations, with brief IFR in the intense rain cores.

Evans

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1017 am CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/

Discussion...
a large area of rain with embedded heavier showers along the coast this
morning is gradually spreading inland, and this trend is expected to
continue for the rest of the morning and on through this afternoon.
Highest rainfall rates with some of the stronger reflectivities in/around
parts of Galveston and Brazoria counties have been between 1/2 and
1 inch per hour, but this activity has been moving off to the northwest
pretty fast resulting in 3 hour rainfall totals around an inch or less.
Infrared satellite imagery and area radars are indicating the most intense
and training rainfall so far has been focusing in/around the Corpus
Christi area and off their coast, and this might end up being the
area to watch today.

Our area can handle activity that is spread out over time with low
rainfall rates, however, any intense rainfall rates in a short period
of time could lead to flooding issues. 42

Previous discussion... /issued 645 am CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/

Marine...
a slow moving, weakly organized tropical wave continues to drift
over the western Gulf of Mexico. The Small Craft Advisory will
continue through the day Tuesday, and has been extended into
Wednesday morning for the offshore waters as seas will subside
slowly. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have become more
numerous overnight, and this trend is expected through today.

Tides are expected to remain 1 to 1.5 feet above astronomical
levels today, with high tide at the Galveston Bay entrance peaking
a little over 3 feet above MLLW at high tide this morning. A
reasonable worst case would take tides to nearly 3.5 feet above
MLLW, and for that reason, a coastal flood advisory continues for
vulnerable locations along the Bolivar Peninsula. Strong rip
currents will again be a threat on Gulf facing beaches.

Luchs

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 74 84 74 86 74 / 50 70 40 70 40
Houston (iah) 76 83 76 86 77 / 80 80 50 60 40
Galveston (gls) 80 84 81 86 82 / 80 80 60 50 30

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...high rip current risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria islands...Matagorda islands.

Small craft should exercise caution from Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning for the following zones: Matagorda
islands.

Coastal flood advisory until 3 PM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...small craft should exercise caution through Wednesday morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small craft should exercise caution from Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning for the following zones: coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel Texas out 20 nm...
coastal waters from High Island to Freeport Texas out 20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for the following
zones: coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel Texas out 20 nm...coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport Texas out 20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 am CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel Texas
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from High Island to Freeport Texas

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