Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 khgx 262332 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
632 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

the main area of scattered showers and thunderstorms were between
ksgr/kiah and kcll. These were drifting northwestward and should
diminish around 01z. Other isolated showers are possible before
01z given the outflow boundaries evident on radar. There are some
showers and thunderstorms about 100 nm offshore. Do not think
these will make it to kgls or klbx but there is an outside chance
they will begin to affect either site between 02z and 06z and
possibly later. For now think the possibility is too small to
include in the forecast.

VFR conditions are expected overall although there is a slight
chance for MVFR conditions around 12z. The models show some slight
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms once again on
Thursday, mainly after 15z at the coast and after 18z further



Previous discussion... /issued 352 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

scattered showers and thunderstorms just south of I-10 near the
Houston metroplex continuing to push north this afternoon with the
help of the seabreeze and outflow from earlier convection. Based
on short term guidance such as the hrrr and rap, still believe
that most of the convection should dissipate around sunset this

The big story for Thursday and Friday will be the heat. High
temperatures Thursday will approach the mid to upper 90s further
inland and the low 90s around the coast by mid afternoon.
Tomorrow, forecast soundings bring pws between 1.9 to 2.1 inches,
therefore, moisture will be available with dew points in the low
to mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. The combination
of elevated high temperatures and moisture will result in heat
indices approaching near heat advisory criteria ranging between
104 to 109 degrees. On the contrary, these heat indicies could be
on the lower side depending on how far inland the sea breeze
reaches tomorrow afternoon. It is possible that a heat advisory
will have to be issued for tomorrow afternoon depending on how the
dew points trend. A similar situation will be possible on Friday,
with high temperatures reaching up into the 90s and dew points in
the mid 70s.

Next best chance for showers and thunderstorms push back in
Saturday and Sunday, as the upper level ridge that was centered
over northern Texas slides west. A trough begins to push into the
area late Saturday and a frontal boundary will slide through the
region. Expecting a majority of this precipitation associated with
this boundary to be east of the forecast area, but still will see
some showers and thunderstorms across our eastern zones late
Saturday and through the day Sunday. Most of the precip should
clear out by early Monday. Dewpoints will lower slightly behind
this feature, though temperatures should still stay around normal
for this time of year.


high pressure situated over the north central Gulf will slowly
meander to the west into the late week. This will suppress shower
and thunderstorm potential, and maintain light onshore winds and
low seas. Towards the weekend, winds may veer towards
southwesterly, but remain light. A weak frontal boundary will sag
into East Texas late in the weekend and may Droop close to the
coast into early next week. Barring the boundary pushing over the
waters, the primary impact of this would be for shower and storm
coverage to increase modestly and force winds back towards the
southeast or east-southeast. Marine concerns should be fairly
limited, though winds and seas can become agitated in the vicinity
of any storms that may manage to crop up.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 76 99 76 99 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 77 96 78 97 78 / 30 10 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 84 92 82 91 83 / 30 20 10 10 10


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations