Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 khgx 232138 
afdhgx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
438 PM CDT Tue may 23 2017

Discussion...
surface analysis as of 1 PM CDT showed an approaching cold front
stretching from del Rio to Waco towards Shreveport, with a weak
prefrontal wind shift entering portions of the Brazos Valley.
Regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows a few cells developing
along and behind the front as it continues to push towards the
southeast. With rap guidance instability increasing ahead of the
approaching boundary and lift overspreading the region from a
passing 90 knot upper jet, expect the severe weather threat to
increase over the next few hours for southeast Texas as scattered
thunderstorms continue to develop along the front. Expect the
front to clear the Brazos Valley late this afternoon, reaching the
Houston Metro mid-evening, and clearing the coast around midnight
tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a large hail
and damaging wind threat (especially if any storms Bow out) as the
front progresses southward.

A few showers may linger behind the front tonight before
dissipating as drier air moves into the region, with clearing
clouds and cold air advection behind the front resulting in
cool overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Dry
weather will continue through the rest of the week with high
temperatures gradually warming into into the low 90s by Friday as
shortwave ridging translates across the region. Northerly winds
will gradually swing around to the south by Thursday as surface
high pressure slides off to the east, allowing moisture to
gradually return by the beginning of the weekend. A cold front
looks to slide into Texas by the beginning of the weekend and
stall at the beginning of next week as an upper low reaches the
Great Lakes. Will have to keep an eye on the Monday/Tuesday
portion of the forecast next week as disturbances overriding this
stalled boundary look to result in a very wet period for the
region.

Huffman

&&

Aviation...
a cold front will push off the coast tonight with strengthening
northerly winds and building seas in its wake (some thunderstorms
developing along and ahead of the front could become strong or
severe as they move off the coast this evening). Onshore winds
will return early Thursday and quickly strengthen during the day.
Elevated winds and seas can be expected from the end of the week
on through the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. Caution flags will
probably be needed, and advisories will be possible. 42

&&

Climate...
low temperatures Wednesday morning will be well-below normal for
late may and observations across parts of the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods regions may approach or reach record low temperatures
for may 24. A listing of record low temperatures for may 24 for
the first order climate sites are provided below.

Location record low year
city of Houston 54 1892
Houston hobby 57 1940
College Station 55 1913
Galveston 62 1940

Huffman

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 56 82 60 90 73 / 50 10 0 0 10
Houston (iah) 59 83 64 89 74 / 60 10 0 0 0
Galveston (gls) 63 81 73 84 79 / 60 10 0 0 0

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...small craft should exercise caution from 11 PM CDT this evening
through Wednesday morning for the following zones: coastal
waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
nm...coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
nm...waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 nm.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations