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fxus64 khgx 280447 
afdhgx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1147 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Aviation...
not much has changed since the 00z taf issuance. Still expecting a
chance of MVFR fog for klbx and ksgr. Sref probabilities show an
outside chance of patchy ground fog at kcll as well. Otherwise,
VFR conditions. Seabreeze and Bay breeze may help provide for
isolated showers and thunderstorms at the Metro Houston airports
between 21z and 01z Friday afternoon--mainly khou and kiah.
Otherwise, the surface ridge off of the coast will help generate
southwesterly winds Friday morning with the seabreeze helping to
turn those to out of of mainly the south by 21z.

40

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 920 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

Discussion...
isolated convection from earlier today has waned with the loss of
heating and additional precipitation is not expected tonight. A
sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure extends from eastern
Arizona to northeast Texas.The ridge is progged to expand and
extend into southeast Texas by Friday morning. At the surface weak high
pressure was located over the western Gulf of Mexico. 00z
soundings show precipitable water values between 1.75 and 1.85 inches but fcst
sounding show pwats falling to around 1.45-1.55 inches by Friday
afternoon. Subsidence from the upper ridge, the lack of a sfc
trigger and a reduction in moisture should lower rain chances
below todays paltry coverage. Temps will likely warm a degree or
so as 850 temps warm and the air mass dries a little. Heat index
values tomorrow will range from about 104 to 109 degrees and the
area will be flirting with heat advisory criteria. Hobby Airport
reached 109 degrees this afternoon just ahead of the cluster of
storms between 500 and 530 PM. Previous forecast has a good handle
on things and only minor tweaks to grids are needed. 43

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 76 100 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 20 20
Houston (iah) 77 98 78 96 78 / 10 10 10 20 30
Galveston (gls) 82 92 83 91 82 / 10 10 10 10 20

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

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