Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 khgx 270444 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1144 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

radar still shows some showers and an isolated storm or two over
kgls. Activity seems to be coming to an end but may still need to
maintain mention of vcsh for kgls and klbx for the next couple of
hours. Quite possible another surge of convection could move
inland from the Gulf through 09z. Inland expect mainly VFR
conditions but could see some fog/low clouds set up should high
clouds thin out to allow for radiational cooling. Overall tafs not
all that different from 00z package for tomorrow and see no real
changes in the trends from model data. Convection allowing models
on track with mainly afternoon showers and storms again.



Previous discussion... /issued 920 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

at 7:00 PM, surrounding upper air sites had precipitable water/S near 2 to 2.1
inches over the southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Over the
north, shv had a precipitable water of 1.4 inches. This was indicative of the
drier air that was trying to filter down into southeast Texas from the
north. The moisture was evident up through 850 (15 to 16 celsius)
and 700 mb (5 to 6 celsius). Plenty of lift will be available
tonight with a 500 mb trough moving across the area overnight
coupled with a few surface boundaries in place from earlier and
ongoing convection. The tricky part about the forecast for the
remainder of the night will be to determine how far southward the
drier airmass will push into the area. The models differed
somewhat with the higher resolution/short term models making a
case for a bit of a push southward. Decided to keep the lessor
pops over the northeast but to also nudge the 20 percent area a
bit farther to the northeast.

Otherwise, chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the night. Will have a chance for some of the slower
moving storms to generate 1 to 3 inches of rain in spots which may
in turn cause isolated minor flooding. Bit tough to determine
actually where this will occur but best chances for the isolated
heavier rainfall will be generally across the Interstate 10
corridor given the moisture axis present at 700 mb.


Previous discussion... /issued 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Aviation.../00z taf/
the radar is still pretty active this evening with boundary
collisions from outflows causing new development. Tafs will carry
vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity through 01-02z this evening. Radar and GOES 16 vis
imagery shows outflow coming from Cleveland towards kiah so will
need to monitor that for new development. Otherwise any new
development should be from kcxo to kuts/kcll. There are a couple
new showers between ksgr/khou and new activity in the Gulf headed
towards klbx. Again lots to monitor and likely see some amending
until convection dissipates. Convection should dissipate with the
loss of heating, but there is still a moist airmass over the area
which given a couple hours to recharge could produce new storms
later tonight.

Overnight while there could be a few lingering showers/storms,
think overall should have VFR conditions. There might be some
MVFR/IFR conditions for kcll and maybe kcxo/klbx should skies
clear enough and fog/low clouds develop.

Tomorrow looks to same as today with 2 inch precipitable water
airmass over the region. Convective temperatures in the mid/upper
80s should still trigger storms along any existing boundaries.
Should get scattered activity again with multiple outflow boundary
collisions providing lift for storms.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 72 89 71 91 74 / 20 50 10 40 10
Houston (iah) 73 87 73 89 75 / 30 50 20 50 30
Galveston (gls) 78 86 78 86 79 / 40 50 50 50 50


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations