Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1100 am CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
southwestern-based upper ridging will continue its eastward
expansion over the state. This will be the main reason for these
mainly clear and subsequently warmer week days.
Weak onshore flow has drawn slightly higher Gulf moisture inland.
Mainly clear afternoon skies will mix drier 700-950mb layer air
to the surface. This will translate to mid to upper 50f dew points
creating (inland) upper 30 to lower 40 percent afternoon humidities
/lower 50 coastal %rhs. Southeasterly breezes today will de-couple
overnight and wake up from the light east-southeast tomorrow. Nil
rain chances and slightly warmer today with middle 80 maximum
temperatures...an average 5 degrees above late October standards.
Overnight fog development over more rural open expanses or waterways
..locally dense...Is likely again Thursday morning. 31
Previous discussion... /issued 441 am CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
the forecast for southeast Texas is expected to remain on the warm/quiet/dry
side through the rest of the week. A generally persistent (mostly)
easterly low-level flow combined with the building upper ridge off
to the west are continuing to be the main players with our current
weather pattern. Temperatures should remain fairly persistent with
numbers keeping on the slightly warmer side of normal. Patchy fog/
low clouds will be possible during the overnight/early morning hrs
the next few days as well.
Very limited/nil rain chances are progged until perhaps early next
week for the cwa, but we could see isolated activity over the near
and offshore waters starting tomorrow with the passage of a couple
of weak easterly waves. Some of this activity could affect the far
SW corners of the forecast area (in/near Matagorda bay) over the weekend. But
rain chances for inland portions should be increasing from the west-southwest
starting Mon into Tue next week. Favoring the European model (ecmwf) (given is past
performance), we may be seeing a shortwave break off and move into
the state at that time. 41
easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail today with a slight
increase in winds arriving late Thursday through Saturday. A long
fetch will lead to a gradual increase in swells Friday and Saturday.
Rain chances may increase Friday and Saturday (mainly showers though
a thunderstorm can't be ruled out) as a little Richer pool of
moisture spreads westward across the Gulf.
skies clearing quickly in the wake of the upper wave. This may well
set the stage for patchy radiation fog to develop the remainder of
the overnight hours...improving quickly between 13-14z if not
sooner. Fog threat should return again Thursday morning and without
the cloud cover faster falling temperatures may cause the return
to be earlier...closer to 06z Thu.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 84 61 86 63 87 / 10 0 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 85 61 86 61 87 / 10 0 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 83 69 82 71 82 / 10 10 10 10 10