Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally breezy trade winds will continue as a high pressure persists 
to our north. Passing low clouds and showers will favor windward and 
mauka areas through early next week. A pair of tropical cyclones 
expected to move westward across the central Pacific may affect the 
main Hawaiian Islands beginning late next week, possibly bringing 
more active weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface high pressure residing far north-northeast of the islands 
is bringing moderate to locally breezy trade winds across area this 
evening. Low clouds embedded in the winds are reaching the state at 
times, providing some showers mainly to windward and mountain areas. 
An area of low clouds reached the Big Island earlier this evening 
will keep the windward areas of that island a little more cloudy and 
showery through the rest of the night into early Friday morning. 
Elsewhere mainly fair weather prevails, with some increase in low 
clouds overnight possible, affecting mainly windward and mountain 
areas.

The high to our north will prevail through early next week and will 
maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds to the islands. 
Furthermore, forecast models indicate airmass in the island 
vicinity will stay somewhat stable and drier. Therefore, typical
trade wind weather is expected to continue through the weekend into 
early next week.

Latest forecast models still show the possibility of a pair of 
tropical cyclones moving westward across the central Pacific later 
next week. It is still too early to tell what, if any, impacts 
these will have on the islands. The National Hurricane Center in
Miami is tracking these systems now, and the first of these
systems could cross 140W into the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center's area of responsibility as early as Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure far northeast of the state will support moderate to
locally fresh trade winds. An area of enhance moisture will
continue to move through windward Big Island tonight, introducing
prolonged periods of MVFR conditions. AIRMET SIERRA is posted
along the north through east sections of the Big Island. Some
showers may spread towards eastern Maui. Elsewhere, expect
predominately VFR conditions with only brief MVFR conditions in
passing showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory continues for the coastal waters around Maui 
and the Big Island through Friday afternoon, due to locally breezy 
trade winds. As the moderate winds are expected to persist, this 
advisory may need to be extended and adjusted through the weekend.

Surf along eastern facing shores is expected to edge up slightly 
through the weekend as the short period trade wind swell increases 
under the stronger winds. Otherwise, no significant surf is expected 
through early next week. By the middle of next week, long period 
easterly swell generated by potential tropical cyclone activity east 
of Hawaii may begin to affect the state.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big 
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Eaton
Rest...Hui

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations