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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME
356 am EDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Synopsis...
a cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the
region tonight, providing another round of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build in from the west Tuesday through Wednesday.
A weak frontal boundary will settle south from Canada Thursday
and will stall just south of the region on Thursday and perhaps
Friday. Areas of low pressure may travel along this front to our
south over the weekend.

&&

Near term /through today/...
cold front approaching from the west will bring variable
cloudiness today and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon...mainly in western zones. Timing of the front not ideal
for a big convective outbreak but could see some stronger cells
getting into southwest New Hampshire during the late afternoon and
early evening. Storm Prediction Center has shifted marginal risk of severe back to the
west with just Cheshire, Sullivan and Grafton counties in New
Hampshire included in this outlook. Best shear generally remains
west of the forecast area today and gut feeling is CAPES will be
dwindling by the time activity pushes into the Connecticut valley
but can't rule out a stray severe with wind damage being the main
threat.

Expect storms in these areas to produce very heavy rainfall as
pwat's spike in the 1.5 to 2 inch range ahead of the front.
Good storm motion of 25 to 30 kts should keep things moving along
but any areas of training cells will have to be closely monitored
for flash flooding. Expect showers and some thunderstorms to
spread across most of new hamphire through early evening. Highs
today will range through the 80s across most of the forecast area
with lower to mid 90s in southern New Hampshire. Developing sea
breeze will cap temps at the coast in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

Short term /tonight through 6 PM Tuesday/...
cold front will gradually cross the forecast area overnight.
Showers and some thunderstorms will push through western mmaine
during the evening hours and expect the bulk of this activity to
push east of the forecast area by midnight or shortly after. Ocean
stratus may blanket coastal Maine for good portion of the night
before westerlies kick toward daybreak. Inland areas will see
areas of fog. Should see a warm and muggy night with lows ranging
through the 60s.

Slightly cooler and less humid air will arrive on gusty northwest
winds Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Will see a
mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s in
the north and mid to upper 80s in the south.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
Wednesday will remain dry with a ridge of high pressure building
over the region. On Thursday, a cold front will slip south from
Canada and will cross New England. Unfortunately, there are some
timing differences from model to model and run to run with this
feature.

Thereafter, the 00z model suite stalls this front to our south.
Again there are model differences as to exactly how far south of
our region the front ends up becoming stationary. The GFS brings
the surface front all the way to the mid Atlantic region, while
the latest Euro hangs this system up further to the north, over
southern New England. This location will have significant
ramifications to next weekends forecast as a series of weak areas
of low pressure are forecast to move along this front. This would
bring well needed rain to the region. For now, have included
chance pops for precip during this period.

&&

Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
short term...VFR today with areas of MVFR ceilings/vsby associated
with thunderstorms in western zones late. Areas of MVFR/IFR
ceilings/vsby in coastal and southern interior portions of Maine
overnight. VFR Tuesday.

Long term...VFR conditions are expected Wednesday, with
increasing chances for some restrictions Thursday as a cold front
crosses the region. An area of low pressure will cross through New
England on Saturday and again Sunday lowering visibilities and
ceilings.

&&

Marine...
short term...no flags.

Long term...winds and seas look to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the end of the week.

&&

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$

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