Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kgyx 201856
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
256 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod tonight and
Thursday, and could produce some gusty winds at times along the
coast into Thursday. Otherwise high pressure will be the main
feature and build south into the region into early next week,
with temperatures running well above normal through the period,
and mainly clear skies Thursday through Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
tropical system Jose will become quasi-stationary south of Cape
Cod tonight. This means continued gusty winds from the north
can be expected at times along the coast tonight. Meanwhile, high
pressure with a drier air mass will slowly work south tonight.
Clearing has already taken place across the northern half of New Hampshire
and the western mountains of Maine. Southern areas will continue
the low clouds and stratus through the night but no fog expected
due to the mixing. Some valley fog may develop over the CT
River Valley late tonight. Overnight low temps should remain
mild ranging from the mid 50s in the mountains to mid 60s over
Short term /Thursday through Thursday night/...
Jose will remain quasi-stationary south of Cape Cod Thu and Thu
night. Meanwhile a large ridge of high pressure will slowly
build south across northern New England, the combination of Jose
to the south and high pressure to the north will produce some
gusty winds at times along the coast again Thu. The ridge of
high pressure will allow strong subsidence aloft to allow skies
to become mostly sunny Thu and clear skies Thu night.
Also have extended the heavy surf advisory along the coast
through Thursday night as the long period swells from the
Temps will reach well into the 70s Thu with overnight lows
dipping into the mid 40s mountains to mid 50s elsewhere.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
Jose will likely remain nearly stationary south of Nantucket
through much of the forecast period while weakening. At the same
time, deep layer ridging will move in from the west. This will
allow for dry weather Friday (except for a slight chance of
showers on the seacoast friday) through at least Monday with
well above normal temperatures. In fact, highs may approach
records at Concord New Hampshire Sunday and Monday. While not explicitly
forecasting records at this time, highs reaching 90 would do it.
For now, will keep mid-upper 80s going due to limited mixing.
After Monday, the remnants of Jose could come back north while
getting absorbed into a southward-moving cold front across our
area. If that occurs, showery weather would be likely but this
seems like a low prob at this time.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
short term...VFR conditions over the northern half of New Hampshire and the
western mountains of Maine tonight will spread to southern areas
by Thursday morning...meanwhile MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected over southern and coastal areas tonight. All areas will
be VFR Thu and Thu night.
Long term...late night/morning valley fog will likely restrict
cigs/vsbys Friday night through early next week. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions are expected.
short term...tropical system Jose will remain nearly stationary
through Thursday night so will continue the Small Craft Advisory through
Thursday night due to the combination of gusty north winds at
times and continue long period swells of 3-5 ft in the bays and
7-11 ft over the outer waters.
Long term...Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely Friday through the
weekend, mainly for seas, as Jose continues to meander south of
long period swells will continue through Thursday night. High
tide at Portland is 10.6 ft shortly after midnight, and
conditions may be a little worse tonight given slightly greater
swell and a higher high tide. This may possibly lead to
to minor splash-over and some beach erosion. On Thursday and
Thursday night continued minor beach erosion is expected.
ME...high surf advisory until 8 am EDT Friday for mez023>028.
New Hampshire...high surf advisory until 8 am EDT Friday for nhz014.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Friday for