Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kgyx 172042
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
342 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018
low pressure will depart the region this evening bringing the
snow to an end. High pressure builds eastward into the region
for the rest of the week and into the weekend with a return
southwest flow bringing warmer temperatures by the weekend. A
storm system may affect the region early next week with mixed
precipitation and rain.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
low pressure will gradually move away from the region this
evening bringing an end to the snow early on. Winter weather
advisories are in effect for the southern half of New Hampshire until 7 PM
with winter storm warnings and advisories continuing for
portions of ME until that time also. A short wave trough will
swing across northern New England late this afternoon and early
evening allowing much the advisory and warning area to pick up
an additional inch or two of snow. This will make the evening
commute slippery in most areas. Some spotty freezing drizzle may
occur as well for a short period of time early this evening, but
that looks like a low probability at this time. Clearing is
expected to occur in the wake of the short wave trough later
tonight downwind of the mountains.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
Thursday looks to be a fair weather day with seasonable
temperatures. However, the northern whites and a portion of the
western ME mountains will probably see upslope snow showers
especially in the morning. Another short wave trough will cross
the region Thursday night with an increase in clouds. Some snow
showers may occur as well if the column moistens up
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
zonal flow will replace the trough which has been plaguing the
East Coast by the end of the week. A more southwesterly warm
air advection pattern develops for the weekend and into early
next week as low pressure detaches and forms along the base of
southern stream troughing over the southern and Central Plains.
Weak upslope snow showers will be possible over the White
Mountains and the western Maine mountains Friday through
Sunday with persistent but non-significant short wave energy
passing by. Precipitation then spreads east with time on Monday
into Tuesday. Coastal locations may see rain with the
possibility of mixed wintry p-types as an eastward moving cold
front brings lifting for ascent towards low pressure pivoting
up the eastern Seaboard. This will allow cooler air back in with
temperatures dropping back towards normal values by next
Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/...
short term /through Thursday night/...MVFR to IFR conditions
early this evening in snow and low clouds will give way to VFR
conditions after midnight tonight through Thursday.
Long term...mainly VFR conditions across the region Friday
through Sunday. There will be a chance of light mountains snow
showers/MVFR ceilings for mainly hie and possibly leb during
this time. Widespread lower ceilings and visibilities in
possibly mixed wintry precipitation late Monday night as low
pressure heads towards New England.
short term /through Thursday night/...marginal Small Craft Advisory for seas
remains in effect for the ocean waters for tonight into early
Long term...waves and winds increase to near Small Craft Advisory conditions
late Friday into Saturday in gusty SW flow before dropping off
river Flood Warning for the Kennebec has been reissued as jammed
up ice has caused the river to rise just above flood stage
again. It is expected to go below flood stage Thursday
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
New Hampshire...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 7 PM this evening
to 7 am EST Thursday for anz150-152-154.