Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kgyx 221333
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
933 am EDT Fri Sep 22 2017
the remnants of Jose will meander well south of Cape Cod into
the weekend, gradually weakening with time. It will produce some
gusty winds at times along the coast through today. Meanwhile,
a large building ridge of high pressure will dominate the
weather across our region through the weekend and into early
next week. We'll see a very nice stretch of dry and unseasonably
warm weather with temperatures running well above normal
Saturday through at least Tuesday. A front will remain nearly
stationary north of our region Wednesday, before sweeping south
as a cold front on Thursday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
935 am update: minor estf update to input latest mesonet data.
Only minor tweaks needed to current forecast.
610 am...minor estf update to ingest the current mesonet into
near term grids.
at 06z...a 987 millibar low...the remnants of
Jose...was centered southeast of the 40n/70w benchmark. A 1023
millibar ridge was draped across northern New England. GOES
imagery continues to show moisture streaming into the forecast
area from Jose. This was mostly in the form of high clouds with
some middle and low clouds confined to coastal sections. National Weather Service
Doppler radar mosaic showed a few bands of showers across the
coastal waters at moment. For today...Jose will wobble a bit
further north and may bring a brief shower to seacoast New
Hampshire and adjacent southwest coastal Maine this morning.
Otherwise...a dry day with the most abundant sunshine found
inland and along the international border. It'll be another
breezy day...especially along the coast with high temperatures
mainly in the 70s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
Jose retreats further offshore tonight as the ridge continues to
build across northern New England. Skies will become mostly
clear tonight with patchy valley stratus and fog developing once
again in the predawn hours. Mostly sunny Saturday and continued
unseasonably warm under the ridge with highs in the upper 70s
and lower 80s for the first full day of fall.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
very quiet conditions expected Saturday night with perhaps some
moisture, mainly in the form of cloudiness over northern areas
spilling over the upper level ridge. There will be some patchy
A strong upper level ridge will dominate for the later half of
the weekend with mainly sunny and dry conditions. It will be
very warm with 800 mb temperatures approaching +20c. With good
mixing, this will allow temperatures in the lower to mid 80s in
most locations. There will be an afternoon sea breeze near and
along the coastline, keeping conditions a little cooler in spots
and dropping readings back through the 70s.
It will continue to be unseasonably warm and humid for the
beginning of the work week next week with readings mainly in the
80s once again and dew points in the 60s. The record high
temperature for Portland 88 degrees and we will likely fall
several degrees short of that benchmark. There may be more
cloudiness and perhaps a stray shower over far northern areas
near the proximity of a stalled out front.
During the midweek period, temperatures will likely cool off
some as a maritime high pressure system allows for an east to
southeast flow to develop near the surface. We will need to
watch this time period for the possibility of maritime fog
forming and overspreading portions of the coastline.
Thursday will feature the best chance for showers as a strong
cold front crosses through the region. This will occur as Maria
passes by well southeast of the forecast area.
Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through Saturday/...LCL IFR through 12z in valley
stratus and fog otw VFR. Surface wind gusts today at coastal taf
sites up to 25 kt. LCL IFR once again tonight btw 09-12z Sat in
valley stratus and fog.
Long term...very dry conditions with the exception for a slight
chance of a shower across the far north at hie. Still VFR
short term /through Saturday/...the remnants of Jose will
remain nearly stationary well south of Cape Cod through tonight.
This will mean Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through today over
the outer waters. In Casco Bay...swells of 3-6 ft continue
along the Outer Harbor areas so a Small Craft Advisory due to hazardous seas will
be needed through today. An Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas will likely
be needed outside the bays for tonight.
Long term...winds and seas generally below Small Craft Advisory levels. Some long
period swells are possible from Hurricane Maria later in the
long period swells from the remnants of Jose will continue
through today and into the weekend. Some minor beach erosion
ME...high surf advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for mez023>027.
New Hampshire...high surf advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for nhz014.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
evening for anz153.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for anz150-