Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kgyx 231208 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
708 am EST Thu Nov 23 2017

high pressure will build across the area today allowing mostly
sunny skies but cool temperatures. A very weak upper trof will
move across the region tonight bringing some clouds and maybe a
few flurries in the mountains. High pressure moves off to the
east Friday allowing a warmer southwest flow to develop that
will continue into Saturday. Another weak cold front crosses
the region late Saturday bringing widely scattered rain showers.
A cold upper trof settles over the region Sunday with possibly
some scattered rain or snow showers and colder temperatures.
More high pressure builds in for the start of next week.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
update: currently clear skies across all areas except in the
mountains where clouds linger. Previous forecast looks good.

Previous discussion:
a downsloping northwest flow accompanied by building high
pressure will allow mostly sunny skies today. Some clouds may
linger in the mountains though through mid morning. Temps will
be much cooler with highs ranging from the upper 20s in the
mountains to the upper 30s to lower 40s over southern and
coastal areas. Used a blend of model mav/met for Max temps.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/...
tonight a weak upper short wave with very limited moisture will
move through the fast zonal flow aloft and through the region.
Nothing more than some clouds expected with this short wave. A
few flurries are possible in the mountains.

Friday a return southwest flow will develop as the surface ridge
of high pressure moves off the coast. This will mean a return to
warmer temps with highs mostly in the 40s.


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
large scale troughing will remain in the area in some form
through late next week over the eastern Continental U.S.. a short wave
will affect the region Saturday driving a weak cold front
through the northeast. This northern stream system moves NE
towards Labrador allowing for more zonal west-southwest flow to move in
behind it.

In the dailies...a warming trend will peak on Saturday with
readings about 4-8 degrees above normal, yielding widespread
40s north and 50s south of the foothills. The cold front will
drive temperatures back a few degrees below normal values for
Sunday and Monday (normal being around 45 degrees for both
Portland and concord). Chilly nights are expected for both
Sunday and Monday nights with lows ranging from the teens north
to 20s south. These temperatures will impact p-type for the
weekend...but generally we are expecting rain showers
transitioning to a rain/snow mix and then just snow for the
higher terrain. Any quantitative precipitation forecast that falls will be light and
concentrated across the mountains and foothills.

By Tuesday a series of waves will approach with precipitation
chances increasing for the mid week period. Northern New
England should see another warming trend as warmer air moves in
from the southwest. Consensus shows a cold front likely moving
through by next Thursday continuing the yo-yoing temperature
trend. As for p-type, the warm air in place suggests mainly
rain. There may be some snow showers on the backside of the
system, but at this time it is too far out to assign much


Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
short term...VFR conditions through Friday.

Long term...periods of MVFR may affect hie and leb primarily
for the weekend in -shra/sn. Residual showers may impact hie
early Monday. VFR expected at all other terminals during this
time frame.


short term...the northwest winds will continue to diminish today
and become more west. Seas over the outer waters remain high and
will be slow to subside below 5 ft so a Small Craft Advisory for seas over the
outer waters will continue today through Fri morning.

Long term...wind gusts increase once again to strong Small Craft Advisory levels
late Friday into Saturday with 5-8 ft seas. After a brief break
Saturday night, winds/seas approach Small Craft Advisory criteria once again
late Sunday.


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 am EST Friday
for anz150-152-154.


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations