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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME
329 am EDT sun Oct 23 2016

low pressure in Quebec will gradually move further north today. In
its wake rain and snow showers will continue in the mountains
while elsewhere cloudy skies in the morning will give way to some
sun in the afternoon. Windy conditions are expected today. Tonight
clearing occurs across all areas as the dry west flow continues
but diminishes. The cool cyclonic flow will continue through
midweek. By the end of the week another upper trough will approach
and move through the area with more unsettled weather.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the center of low pressure is now located north of Maine along the
St Lawrence River valley and moving north. In the systems wake a
broad cyclonic flow will continue across the area today keeping
rain and snow showers in the mountains and foothills. Above 3000
feet a few inches of snow may accumulate. Over southern and
downslope areas conditions will gradually dry out and the clouds
will give way to some sun in the afternoon. With the strong
westerly pressure gradient lined up vertically combined with cold
advection aloft, mixing down of winds expected thus strong gusty
winds today but should remain just below Wind Advisory criteria.
Some exceptions will be over the higher terrain but will be
localized. Temperatures will remain steady during the day or only
rise a few degrees due to the strong cold air advection. Used a
blend of models for Max temps and for wind forecast relied on the
wrfems which appeared better.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
the cool west flow continues tonight and Monday and all areas
are expected to clear out except for some lingering clouds in the
mountains due to orographics. Temperatures will be cool tonight through
Monday. Winds will diminish some overnight but then increase and
become gusty once again during Monday as a weak short wave exits
to our south Monday.


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
in the 500mb hemispheric pattern, any signs of of possible +pna
pattern break down toward the end of the week, although the ridging
in the west and the troughing in east do set up a cool spell through
Wed before large scale troughing over the ern Continental U.S. Breaks down and
troughs become more Mobile. This will allow for some warmer and
cooler periods, but generally 850 temps stay with a few degrees c of
normal late this week into next weekend.

Mon night and Tue will see decent shot of energy swinging around
base of the large scale trough, and deepening it while pulling even
cooler air southward into New England. This will pull sfc and 850
mb low over the Maritimes a little bit to the south and west and
will keep decent gradient in the low to mid levels, so look for northwest
flow to persist with upslope showers continuing in the mountains.
In fact, will likely see the upslope surge a little bit late Monday
night into Tuesday as the wave moves through. Lows Mon night will
be around 30 in the north to the mid 30s along the coast and in
srn New Hampshire with highs on Tue ranging from the low 40s in the north to near 50
in the south.

Tue night will see the northwest flow slacken off a bit and with colder air
place will see mins drop to the upper 20 north to the mid 30s S, but
still too much flow to allow for any real rad cooling. Wed should
be partly to mostly sunny with weakening northwest flow as sfc high builds
in, and Max temps not all that different from Tue. Next system
arrives late Thu into Friday, as sfc low tracks to our north and allows
for some warning, buit also the threat for showers, mainly Thu
night into Friday.

Sat remains uncertain with possible weak closed 500mb low in the
vicinity, but it should cool down a bit for next weekend.


Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...VFR conditions expected in all southern and downslope
areas today while in the mountains MVFR conditions are expected
in scattered rain and snow showers. Conditions will improve to VFR
in the mountains tonight. All areas will be VFR on Monday.

Long term...mainly VFR Mon night through Thu. Khie could see some
periods of flight restrictions in shrasn Mon night into Tue.



short term...a persistent west flow will keep gales over the
outer waters into tonight. Strong Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected in
the bays through tonight. On Monday the west gradient winds will
continue but will not be as strong. A Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters on
Monday will likely be needed while in the bays, conditions should
remain just below criteria.

Long term...Small Craft Advisory conds likely to persist through Tuesday and maybe
into Tue night, but winds should subside for Wed and Thu.


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for anz151-
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for anz150-152-154.


Near term...marine
short term...marine
long term...cempa

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