Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kgyx 171716
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1216 PM EST sun Dec 17 2017
high pressure will build across the region today. A weak
Canadian clipper will move across the area Monday spreading
some areas of light snow across the region. Another Canadian
clipper with an associated cold front will move through the
area Tuesday with scattered rain or snow showers. Colder weather
returns late in the week as Canadian high pressure builds
southeast into the region. Another system will approach from the
west Friday and may spread precipitation across the area by late
in the day and into the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1215 PM...just a few tweaks to temps/winds based on current obs.
Winds still pretty light in some spots, but depsite this, temps
jumping up in places anyway. Overall forecast remains
10 am...this update features some adjustments to temps based on
current obs, but really not much else, as current forecast in
decent shape. Should see lots of sunshine through most of the
day with some cirrus moving into SW zones late this afternoon.
Cold though, with highs 15-20 in the mtns, and in the mid to
upper 20s on the ME coastal plain and in srn New Hampshire.
640 am update: clear skies across the region as high pressure
builds over the region. A very cold early morning start due to
the early morning radiational cooling. Input latest mesonet
data. Made some adjustments to be colder for temps over the
next few hours, otherwise no other changes needed.
Canadian high pressure builds across the region today. Temps
will be colder with highs in the teens and 20s. Winds will be
generally light from the northwest.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
tonight high pressure moves off the coast. A weak short wave
will approach from the west and move across the region on
Monday. Clouds will be on the increase tonight and by early
Monday some areas of overunning light snow should spread from
west to east across the area. Moisture will be very limited but
maybe an inch or so of snow accumulations may occur in some
areas. Rfcqpf looks good. Used a blend of model temps suggesting
highs mainly in the 20s.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
zonal flow will continue through Friday when flow will become
more southwesterly. Several short waves will move through the
area during the extended period of the forecast. A precipitation
event will be coming to an end late Monday into Tuesday with
residual showers in the mountains. An additional half inch or so
will fall in the mountains. Mixed precipitation will be
possible late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler weather is
The next significant snowfall event occurs beginning Thursday
night into Saturday.
Aviation /17z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...VFR today through tonight. Conditions becoming
MVFR and possibly IFR in developing areas of snow Monday.
Long term...mainly VFR conditions Monday night through Thursday
except for some MVFR conditions possible in snow showers late
Tuesday and Tuesday night.
short term...winds/seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions today
Long term...scas will be needed Tuesday afternoon through