Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
112 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
low pressure will slowly move east through southern New England
today, bringing heavy rain for most of the region with snow at
the highest elevations. Winds will be gusty at the coast. A ridge
of high pressure will build in from the west tonight. A weak
trough moves through Saturday which drags a cold front through the
area late Sunday. High pressure will build in from the west
Monday. Low pressure will pass by well to our north midweek.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1 PM update: a strong band of north to northwest winds on the
back side of the intensifying area of low pressure will continue
to develop along the coast this afternoon into the early evening.
Will continue the Wind Advisory along the midcoast until 8 PM and
issue a Wind Advisory along the southwest coast of Maine and the
seacoast of New Hampshire until 8 PM as well. Some winds may approach 50 mph
at times. Winds will subside later in the evening as the low moves
10 am update: surface low pressure deepening and now centered
just off the seacoast of New Hampshire as upper low continues further
development as shown nicely on water vapor imagery. Forecast looks
very good and on track for the next several hours so just a few
minor tweaks were needed...mainly surface temps based on latest
have updated the forecast based on current conditions and latest
suite of mesoscale models. Cyclogenesis continues with the surface
low just east of Providence as of 10z. Dry slot has moved east
across southern New England and into the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile,
best dynamics remain over Maine and northern New Hampshire.
Latest radar imagery showing precipitation filling in over
southern areas in association with the approaching mid level low.
This precipitation will rotate out of southern New Hampshire and
York County Maine early this morning before proceeding to the
north and east.
Minor adjustments made to temperatures and dew points this hour.
Winds have finally increased over the coastal waters, with most
buoys now in a gale. Seas will respond over the next few hours,
with waves as high as 14 feet over the outer waters expected.
hazards today: accumulating snow in the mountains and strong
gusty winds along the coast, particularly the midcoast region.
Cyclogenesis continues along the southern New England coast early
this morning. Radar and satellite imagery this morning shows
system wrapping up near coastal Rhode Island as dry slow enter
passes through CT and much of western Massachusetts. Moderate to heavy
precipitation will pivot with time as the upper level low enters
the Gulf of Maine today. Mesoscale models have a good handle on
this evolution as moisture rotates back into the forecast area.
There will be lulls in the precip over far southern New Hampshire at times
Winds will continue to increase along the coast. Best gradient and
mixing will be over the midcoast region where a Wind Advisory
Elsewhere, still expecting one to two inches of well needed rain,
helping to alleviate the drought conditions. Some ponding on
roadways remains a possibility, especially with leaves collecting
over storm drains.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
a very weak and progressive ridge of high pressure will race
across the region tonight. Temperatures with this airmass will not
be as cold as previously over the last couple days.
The surface ridge will be quickly followed by a cold front
approaching from the northwest on Saturday. This will bring
scattered showers to the region, however this front will be
relatively moisture starved. Daytime highs will be seasonably cool
withhighs in the 40s north to 50s south.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
the models are in decent agreement on the longwave pattern
through the first half of next week. We begin the period with
broad Load amplitude flow across much of the Continental U.S.. a series of
weak impulses will race east vicinity of the international border
and serve to drive a cold front southward across the area on
Sunday. Behind this feature a west-southwest flow and rising
heights. High pressure will build east and crest across the region
on Monday before retreating offshore on Tuesday. The next
shortwave impulse will ride northeast across the Great Lakes and
into southeastern Canada late Tuesday...with surface low pressure
driving a cold front across the region early Wednesday. Thereafter...model
solutions diverge significantly across the northeast Continental U.S. Adding
considerable uncertainty to sensible weather for the remainder of
Aviation /17z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term...mainly IFR with areas of LIFR conditions today
improving to mainly VFR tonight. There will be low level wind
shear, especially this morning.
Sun...areas of MVFR in -shra.
Tues PM...sct MVFR psb in -shra.
short term...strong gales will continue into the evening. Gusts
will continue to approach 50 knots at times. Seas of 14-18 feet
will continue through the evening before slowly subsiding with the
Sun - Mon...small craft conditions are possible outside the bays.
some beach erosion is expected near the time of high tide this
morning. Minor splash-over possible near the time of high tide.
ME...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for mez024>028.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for mez023.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
New Hampshire...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for nhz014.
Marine...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for anz150>154.