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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME
1010 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

a slow moving frontal boundary and a developing low pressure
center will bring wet weather and a cool onshore flow to the
region into Saturday. Later Saturday and Saturday night...the low
will gradually lift north into Quebec. On the backside of this
system...colder air will arrive on gusty northwest winds for the
latter part of the weekend and early next week. Some accumulating
snow will be possible in the mountains Saturday night into Sunday
night. A large Canadian high pressure system will then dominate
the region through midweek next week.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
10pm update...narrow band of intense convective rainfall formed
along a developing trough as it moved across southern New England
this evening. This intense rainfall led to flash flooding in
several locations along its path, extending up into southern New
Hampshire. As this rain has made its way north, it has fanned out
into a broader area of heavy rainfall which is now impacting most
of western Maine as the primary line has moved into the seacoast
of New Hampshire. We have made significant updates to
precipitation chances and total rainfall amounts based on how we
expect this event to unfold going forward. Flood advisories have
been issued for much of western Maine and flash flood warnings
will be issued for any areas which see prolonged heavier rainfall.
Much of western Maine has already had an inch or more of rain
which has caused street flooding in spots, so additional rainfall
could cause more significant issues.

530pm update... main update at this time was to the pop to more
closely reflect the radar returns showing rain pushing into
western New Hampshire and keeping eastern sections lower.

Region of stronger convection /as seen by -60c infrared cloud tops/ now
moving over the 70w/40n benchmark. Satellite trends and high res
guidance continues to point to it moving northwards into our area
around midnight. Heaviest rainfall would be from Portland
eastwards to Penobscot Bay. While the rain looks to move through
relatively quickly, there is a slight chance for it to get hung
up along the coast which will need to be monitored.

Previous discussion:
there are two main wx concerns for tonight...rnfl and fog.

For starters marine fog is already creeping back swwd along the ME
coastline. Inland vsbys have improved slightly...but will trend
back down after dark and likely stay that way as low pressure
moves overhead. Narre-tl hints at dense fog moving towards the
forecast area from the S after at this point will
keep fog in the forecast and monitor for a potential dense fog

Regarding the rnfl...the area to watch is developing S of Cape Cod
at this hour. A large area of convection continues to Peel off of
the sub-tropical low pressure off the Carolinas...heading towards
New England. The low level moisture has already arrive across srn
New England...with showers moving north thru the area. I have
increased pop across srn New Hampshire in the next couple of hours for these
showers. Satellite cloud patterns already suggest low pressure
circulation is developing within this convection...and model
guidance pivots this into wrn ME this evening. Global guidance of
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have finally come around to the idea of
potentially heavy rnfl along and east of the low pressure track. This
matches hi-res guidance like the hrrr and ncar ensembles. Most
favorable area will be the border of New Hampshire and ME...and on ewd thru
the night. Best period for potential heavy rnfl will be 00z to 06z
this the low level jet pivots newd.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
band of rnfl exits the forecast area early Sat...but with surface
trough overhead I do not expect much clearing. Stratus should
linger...and there may be drizzle in the early part of the day
with weak lift continuing in the dry slot.

Upper trof swings thru the region in the afternoon. An area of
showers is likely to be forced out ahead of this
feature...sweeping SW to NE across the forecast area in the
afternoon. It is near and after this time that winds will begin to
increase...especially as colder air filters into the area. Behind
the upper trof strong pressure rises may help to bring some gusty
winds...though that potential looks best across srn New England.
As cold air deepens Sat night it is more likely that is when winds
begin to pick up across our forecast area. At this time it looks
to be a slow and gradual build up...before cold air advection really kicks in on
sun. Snow levels will also be dropping Sat night...and some
accumulations are possible at the highest elevations late Sat. The
best shot is above 3000 feet...but elevations down to around 2000
feet may see some flakes as well. Winds and poor trajectory for
cold air delivery most likely keep the valleys well mixed enough
to preclude any snwfl.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
upcoming potential hazard: strong, gusty winds on Sunday.

Winds align through a deep layer as a strong surface low (~980 mb)
exits into the Canadian Maritimes. The upper low shifts east of
New England as well, allowing for a deep, well mixed layer. Models
have shifted into agreement for the passage of the upper level
features. This passage, in combination with a strong gradient and
cold air advection will allow for very gusty winds Sunday. Wind
advisories may be needed as we continue to monitor the situation.
Wind gust over 45 mph would lead to scattered power outages.

Expect upslope rain showers to develop. Cold air advection and the
wet bulb affect will allow the rain showers to mix with and
change to snow showers at the higher elevations where a light
coating of snow is expected.

A short wave quickly races through the region Sunday evening,
bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air and continued very gusty
conditions along with moisture to the region.

The upper level low will remain over the Canadian Maritimes for
much of this upcoming work week. This will keep cool and breezy
conditions over the region as high pressure remains in control of
the northeast.


Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term...widespread LIFR conditions will continue thru
tonight. Some brief improvement to VFR and MVFR over parts of New Hampshire
will deteriorate again tonight as well. The low level jet lifting
over the region late this afternoon and evening will also yield
some marginal low level wind shear at the taf sites. LIFR and IFR remains
widespread until late Sat when cold air advection will start to mix out the
wedged in low level air mass.

Long term...conditions will improve to VFR by Sunday morning
outside of the mountains, which will linger in MVFR to IFR briefly
in rain showers at khie through Sunday. Also look for northwest winds of above
30+ kts on Sunday. VFR is expected at all terminals much of next


short term...Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue into Sat...with brief
breaks in wind as low pressure center moves overhead. Eventually
cold air advection developing on the backside will increase winds to near gale
force on the outer waters late Sat.

Long term...a period of gales is possible Sat night into Sunday
with winds diminishing a bit Sunday night into Monday morning.
Gale watches have been issued for the outer waters with borderline
gale conditions possible over the bays.


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for anz150>154.
Gale watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for



Near term update... Kimble

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