Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1203 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
low pressure will remain over the Canadian Maritimes through today
before weakening and shifting east tonight. We can expect another
day with breezy northwest winds and upslope snows in the
mountains, which will end tonight. A narrow ridge of high
pressure will build in from the west Wednesday. High pressure
will shift east on Thursday as low pressure approaches from the
west. Low pressure will move east through southern New England
Thursday night and northeast through the Gulf of Maine on Friday.
High pressure will build in from the west Friday night and low
pressure will approach from the west on Saturday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
12 PM update...upslope snow continues in earnest in the whites and
to a lesser extent in the western ME mountains. Have adjusted pops
a little higher there as the activity should continue, with an
additional inch expected in the most favorable areas. Otherwise,
no significant changes to the forecast.
935 am update...little change to the going forecast. Brisk morning
continues along with a fair amount of clouds. Upslope snow showers
still going strong in the central/northern New Hampshire and should continue
into the early afternoon hours with 1 or 2 inches possible in the
most favorable upslope spots.
635 am...this quick update adjust T/TD/sky grids for the next few
hours based on current conds, but no significant changes made.
Also updated a pops a bit, mainly for some flurries making it
into the foothills of Carroll/Oxford/Cumberland counties early
Previously...upper level low and surface continue to spin near
the Maritimes today, with several weak waves moving through, so
expect the northwest flow to produce another breezy and cool day with
upslope shsnra in the mountains. Should see best snow begin to
wind down this afternoon, but should a few more inches in those
upslope areas above 200 feet, with even higher on the highest
terrain. Otherwise look for partly sunny skies on the coastal
plain. Temps will warn to 50, or maybe the lower 50s along the
coast and in southern NH, where the warmer met has been performing
best in this downsloping over the last couple of days. It will be
in the 40s most everywhere else, although a few mountain spots may
not crack 40.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
one more wave works its way southward around that low to our NE
and could see another wave of clouds, but any upslope shsn will be
lighter and less widespread. Wed morning lows will end up a
couple degrees cooler than this morning, and winds will be
diminishing, which will allow for some decoupling in the
sheltered spots. Low will range from the mid-upper 20s in the
mountains, to the low 30 in the south.
Will see the low begin to move out of the Maritimes, but will
still be beneath cyclonic flow aloft, and thus, will be be partly
to mostly cloudy. Winds will be the lightest we have seen in the
last few days, but still from the northwest at 10-15 mph. Despite cold air advection
waning, the coldest air of this surge will be overhead, so highs will
drop a couple degrees from Tuesday, ranging from around 40 in the
the north to the upper 40s in the S.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
a narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west
Wednesday night as low pressure finally shifts off to the east.
Lingering clouds will gradually diminish overnight allowing for
good radiational cooling...especially after midnight. Lows will
range from the lower 20s north to the mid to upper 20s south.
Models coming into line on low pressure approaching from the west
on Thursday. After a mostly sunny start to the day...clouds will
be on the increase in the afternoon with rain pushing into
western zones by late afternoon and early evening. Over-running
pattern ahead of low pressure will gradually work north and east
Thursday evening. Cold air damming east of the mountains will
likely result in some wet snow or sleet during the evening hours
in the mountains and foothills and over the higher terrain
in interior sections of Maine and New Hampshire. Intensifying
onshore flow will bring warmer air northward overnight as low
pressure swings into southern New England so not looking for much
in the way of accumulation. Rain will be heavy at times after
midnight. Expect steady or slowly rising temps overnight.
Low pressure will slowly move northeast through the Gulf of Maine
on Friday. Expect steady rain in the morning to gradually push
north and east of the area through early afternoon leaving clouds
and areas of drizzle in its wake. Highs on Friday will range from
the upper 30s to mid 40s north and upper 40s to mid 50s south.
Low pressure will pull away to the east Friday night as a narrow
ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Looking for clouds
to gradually diminish downwind of the mountains overnight with
variable cloudiness in the north. Lows will range through the 30s.
Models still showing some significant diffs for the weekend as
another shortwave forecast to drop into the northeast. GFS the
most aggressive with this fast moving clipper type system while
the European model (ecmwf) showing a much weaker wave and associated surface low.
Will likely stay close to superblend pop numbers for Saturday.
Aviation /16z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term...mainly VFR, with the exception of khie, which will
see some restrictions to MVFR in times in shn into this
afternoon. Northwest winds will gust in the 20-25 kt range today, but
winds should diminish on Wed.
Long term...VFR Wednesday night. IFR/LIFR ceilings developing
Thursday afternoon and persisting through Friday. Becoming VFR
Friday night. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing Saturday
short term...will keep the Small Craft Advisory going through today as we are
expecting another surge of winds. Have also added the bays until
02z this evening as nearshore gusts are around 25 kt. Have also
extended the Small Craft Advisory for the ocean waters through tonight based on
latest forecast information.
Long term...sca's likely Thursday night and Friday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for anz151-
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Wednesday for anz150-152-
Near term update...mle