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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME
915 am EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

Synopsis...
high pressure will build in from the west today through tonight. A
weak cold front will approach from the north on Wednesday and will
drop south and stall over the region Wednesday night and Thursday.
High pressure will build in from the north Thursday night through
Friday as low pressure passes out to sea south of New England.
High pressure will hold over New England through the weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
915 PM update...have updated the forecast and made a few minor
changes based on latest trends in obs and mesoscale model data.
Have increased high temps a degree or two. I have also mentioned
isolated thunder for the corridor roughly between Coos County New Hampshire
southeastward to the midcoast of ME as a short wave trough moves
across the region. No severe weather is expected but there could
be a couple of rumbles.

Previously...

Slightly cooler and less humid air will filter into the region on
northwest winds today as high pressure builds in from the west.
Should see a mix of sun and clouds with highs from the mid 70s to
lower 80s north and mid to upper 80s south.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
high pressure will hold over the region tonight producing light
winds and mostly clear skies. Lows will range from the mid 50s
north to the mid 60s south.

Weak cold front will drop south through southern Quebec on
Wednesday and may produce a stray showers or thunderstorm in far
northern zones by late in the day. Elsewhere looking for mostly
sunny skies with highs ranging through the 80s to near 90 in
southern New Hampshire.

&&

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
a slow moving cold front approaches from Canada Wednesday night.
All models now more in line with the timing of the passage of the
fropa from northwest to southeast, exiting slowly into the coastal
waters by Thursday evening. The greatest chance for showers and
storms will be Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.
Modeled cape values indicate a significant destabilization of the
atmosphere over southern areas during that period.

The surface front becomes hung up in the Gulf of Maine Friday,
before sagging further to the south, to southern New England late
in the day. Low pressure then follows this surface feature,
tracking along it and off the southern New England coastline
Friday night. New Euro is in better agreement with the 00z GFS,
placing the surface front and the development of low pressure
mainly too far to our south to allow for precip in the region over
the weekend. However, due to uncertainty from run to run, have
included a chance for showers over the weekend as additional waves
of low pressure may follow along the front.

&&

Aviation /13z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term...VFR today through Wednesday.

Long term...a cold front crosses the area Thursday with MVFR
conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR
conditions return Friday. An area of low pressure passing south of
the area Saturday may lower conditions depending on the northern
extent of the system.

&&

Marine...
short term...no flags.

Long term...conditions to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the
outlook period.

&&

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$

Near term update...mle

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