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000 
FXUS61 KGYX 200228
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1028 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to our southeast this evening bringing a
chance for showers across coastal ME. Things are looking up 
however as high pressure finally builds into New England over 
the weekend into early next week. After that the next chance of 
precipitation occurs next Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 
1030PM UPDATE...
Still seeing wave after wave rotating around within the upper
low over our region, so there will be the occasional threat of a
rain/snow shower through the night, though not nearly as
numerous as today.

615PM UPDATE... 
Little wave of light precipitation is rotating through the 
coastal plain of Maine at this hour. Have structured PoPs the 
next few hours to focus on this, while more isolated showers are
possible in the western mountains through the rest of the 
night. Should see less showers overnight.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Upper level low showing up quite clearly on water vapor 
imagery. The initial push of cold air is currently over New York
State with a secondary maxima over Georgian Bay which will move
in tomorrow. Overnight expect will move east across the region 
overnight. Some diurnally driven showers over New York is 
expected to decrease in coverage after sunset as the low moves 
overhead but a few showers will likely continue overnight, 
especially in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
Tomorrow the upper level low moves over with northwesterly 
advection in its wake. With the time of year and strong sun 
angle temperatures will still manage to climb to near 50 along 
the coast. While this is warmer than the past few days its still
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. 

Friday night the northwesterly flow continues with a few snow 
showers lingering in the mountains. While the winds will 
gradually decrease some continuing flow is expected throughout 
the night keeping temperatures a bit warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The good news for this third week of April is that we are 
expecting warming temperatures and sunshine as well as an 
absence of precipitation, at least for the end of the weekend 
and the first part of next week. The bad news is that this 
weather won't last...with convective showers likely by
Wednesday.  

Skies begin to clear out Saturday, lingering the longest in the 
higher mountain passes. Highs in the 40s and 50s over the
weekend will give way to lower to mid 50s north to upper
50s/lower 60s south and central for the beginning of the work
week. Continued rising heights will result in highs in the
60s Tuesday. At the same time, clouds will begin to creep back 
in as moisture increases on southerly flow. This warm advection 
regime will be energized by a ~50 kt LLJ, which will help to 
spread the moisture over New England. As far as timing, Tuesday 
looks less wet as long term deterministic runs continue to slow 
down this multi-barrelled system. Next Wednesday and beyond look
wetter, and this system may give us at least a couple days of 
slow moving, soaking rains. This will knock down highs below 
normal once again.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term... Upper level low moves through the area overnight
and into tomorrow with scattered showers. This will result in
periods of MVFR, especially in the mountains. 

Long Term...

Saturday...Sct MVFR conditions possible before 12Z in mountain 
-SHSN. 

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail with
clearing skies and light northerly flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions are possible later tonight into
Friday as northwesterly winds kick in behind departing low
pressure, however the confidence is fairly low so no headlines
have been issued with this package. 

Long Term...

Sat...SCAs are possible...especially outside the bays.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

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