Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kgyx 261846
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
246 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017
a warm front will approach from the southwest tonight, before a
weak wave of low pressure forms and passes through the Gulf of
Maine Monday. This will provide a round of mixed wintry
precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Low pressure moves north
of the region on Tuesday and drags a cold front through on
Wednesday. High pressure will build in from Canada for the end
of the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
two batches of precipitation will cross our forecast area. First
batch over western New England this afternoon will attempt this
passage the rest of this afternoon and evening. However,
extremely dry Canadian air remains in place in the lower levels
of the atmosphere. Much of the echoes shown on radar will
dissipate before any precipitation reaches the ground.
Nevertheless, latest model suite projecting light precipitation
overnight in a warm air advection, cyclonic flow. With such cold
and dry air in place, this precipitation will mainly be in the
form of light sleet or snow. The most likely area to have
freezing rain accretion still appears to be southern New
Used a non-diurnal curve for the overnight lows. Temperatures
will likely drop with some light precipitation due to
evaporation cooling with the first batch. Thereafter,
temperatures warm through the night.
Short term /Monday through Monday night/...
mixed precipitation gradually changes to rain over southern and
central areas during the day Monday with mixed precipitation
continuing in the north. A weak wave of low pressure will
likely form in the Gulf of Maine during the day. This will
prevent significant warming as winds become northwest for a
period of time.
Areas of mixed precipitation likely to continue over the north
Monday night. However, much of the dynamics associated with the
system will have shifted to the east of the region. Any
precipitation should be light.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
the models remain in decent agreement on the longwave pattern
through late in the work week. Thereafter, timing and strength of
individual impulses embedded in fast flow across the northern
tier of the Continental U.S. Becomes problematic. There is a corresponding
decrease in forecaster confidence in sensible weather details
after day five. We begin the period with a digging shortwave
impulse near the southern tip of Hudson Bay and a weakening
impulse over the Midwest. By late Wednesday...we're left with
shortwave energy centered over eastern New England. At the
surface...low pressure will track from the lower Great Lakes to
southern New England by Tuesday night with an area of overrunning
rain...and some light wintry mix near the international
border...ahead of this disturbance. By early Wednesday...the low
and associated frontal system will exit the coast with a brisk
northwest flow in its wake along with some upslope clouds and snow
showers for the higher terrain. Rising heights arrive for Thursday
with a building ridge of high pressure providing a dry but brisk
day as gusty northwest winds continue. The ridge will crest
overhead Thursday night before retreating offshore on Friday. The
next impulse and associated surface low should approach from the
Midwest by early Saturday. However...models offer a plethora of
solutions with this system lending considerable uncertainty to
sensible weather details for next weekend.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
short term...very dry air in place initially in the lower
levels. However, moisture will eventually brings ceiling and
visibilities down into the IFR category later tonight through
Monday. Possible low level wind shear away from the coast tonight if winds aloft
Some modest improvement in ceilings/visibilities Monday night.
Tue...MVFR with areas of IFR in ceilings...-ra and fog.
Wed - Thu...sct MVFR in mtn -shra/-shsn.
Northwest sfc wind gusting to 25 kt.
short term...have raised flags for small craft. Winds increase
out of the southeast on Monday. Seas will remain above 5 feet
for the outer waters, so scas will continue into Monday night.
Wed - Thu...small craft conditions are likely.
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
Monday for mez007>009-012>014-018>022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 am EDT
Monday for mez023>028.
New Hampshire...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
Monday for nhz001>004-006-009-010.
Freezing Rain Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 am EDT
Monday for nhz005-007-008-011>015.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 8 am to 6 PM EDT Monday for anz153.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 am Monday to 6 am EDT Tuesday for