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fxus61 kgyx 201626 aab 
afdgyx

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Gray ME
1126 am EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure will build in from the west today and will crest
over the area tonight. High pressure will shift offshore on
Tuesday as a warm front approaches from the west. The warm front
will push east through the region Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. Low pressure will move northeast through the Great
Lakes Wednesday night and will continue northeast through
southern Quebec on Thursday....driving a trailing cold front
through the region Thursday evening. High pressure will build in
from the west Thursday night and will shift east on Friday. A
warm front will lift north into New England Friday night and
will be followed by a cold front on Saturday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1630z update...
a quick update to adjust temperatures for the next few hours.
Clouds have brought readings down a degree or so in some areas
from last hour. Still a somewhat gusty northwest flow in place and this
should strengthen and continue to clear out clouds over the
coastal plain.



14z update...
no major changes to the forecast this morning. High pressure
will gradually build in from southern Canada and New York state/Vermont
today allowing northwest winds to slacken. Much cooler temperatures
today as compared to yesterday, but still slightly above normal.



12z update...
quick update to adjust temps/tds and sky grids. Clouds continue
to erode downwind of the mountains early this morning and
expect this trend to continue during the morning hours. Mountain
zones will see clearing by late morning or early afternoon.
Otherwise...high pressure in control today through tonight. No
other changes planned attm.



Previous discussion...
cold front currently pushing south of the region leaving mainly
low level moisture in its wake. Downsloping winds already
clearing clouds downwind of the mountains and expect this trend
to extend into northern zones through daybreak as high pressure
builds in from the west. Looking for mostly sunny skies and
brisk northwest winds today. Highs will top out in the in the
30s north and upper 30s to lower 40s south.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...
high pressure will crest over the region tonight producing clear
skies and light winds. Lows will range through the single
numbers north and teens south.

High pressure will shift east on Tuesday as a warm front
approaches from the west. After a mostly sunny start to the day
high clouds will overspread the region during the afternoon.
Highs will range from the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
the extended looks to become active once again...with a series
of S/WV trofs possibly affecting the area thru the weekend. The
difference between this coming week and the pattern that began
about two weeks ago...is that the tendency will be for trofing
over the wrn Continental U.S.. this means that ridging will be more likely
over the ern Continental U.S....and warmer storm system for the forecast
area.

The first S/WV will be shearing out across the Hudson Bay area
Tue night. This will send a decaying cold front towards the
region. Forcing will be light...so I am not expecting a
significant quantitative precipitation forecast event. If enough cold air can filter in along
and ahead of the front...some light mixed precip is possible.

A fast moving nrn stream S/WV is set to pass north of the region
Thu. This will be a mostly non-event S of the mtns...but upslope
showers will be possible as the trof passes. At elevation some
snow will fall...but warmer temps could lead to rain in the
valleys.

The strongest S/WV of the week will eject out of the plains late
in the week. Strong low pressure is forecast to develop and cut
thru the upper Midwest. This is set to lift the linger warm
front back north thru the forecast area Fri. As we enter the warm
sector...I do not expect precip to be widespread...but the front
itself may lead to some showers especially in the mtns. There
will likely be some cold air damming at the surface that keeps
the really mild air at Bay...but temps do look warm enough for
rain for a good portion if not all of the forecast area. The
bulk of that precip will wait until the cold front
passes...which should hold off until the weekend.

&&

Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
short term...VFR today through Tuesday.

Long term...VFR conditions generally expected to prevail until
the end of the work week. A weakening cold front may bring some
MVFR showers to the area Tue night...but it does not look
widespread. A low pressure system cutting thru the Great Lakes
will push a warm front thru the area Fri. This will likely bring
an extended period of MVFR or lower.

&&

Marine...
short term...continuing sca's through this evening for the outer
waters and through this afternoon for the bays.

Long term...winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds thru the end of the week.

&&

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 5 PM EST this afternoon
for anz151-153.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for anz150-
152-154.

&&

$$

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