Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kgyx 171837
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
237 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017
high pressure will hold south of New England tonight through
Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the west on Thursday
and will move east through the region Thursday night. High
pressure will build in from the west on Friday and will crest
over the area on Saturday before shifting east. High pressure
will hold off the coast Sunday through Monday as a cold front
slowly approaches from the west. The cold front will stall over
the region Monday night and Tuesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
the center of surface high pressure will continue to move south
of New England tonight allowing weak warm air advection to
develop in its wake. The result will be an increase in clouds
tonight, mainly in the northern New Hampshire and western ME mountains.
Otherwise, a nice night for most and not as cold as last night.
Short term /Wednesday through Wednesday night/...
deep layer ridging will be the story on Wednesday with a light
southwesterly flow at the surface. The result will be sunny
skies and temperatures a good 10-15 degrees higher than
It will be warmer still Wednesday night in the continuing warm
air advection regime. Some valley fog possible late at night,
but otherwise it looks clear.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
high pressure will hold south of New England on Thursday as a weak
front approaches from the west. Expect mostly sunny skies
through the day with highs from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Moisture starved front will cross the region Thursday night with
little if any fanfare. Best dynamics with associated shortwave
remain well north of the region so only looking for passing clouds
as this boundary moves through during the evening hours. Lows
overnight will range through the 40s.
High pressure will build in behind the front on Friday bringing
only slightly cooler weather along with abundant sunshine. Highs
will again top out above normal ranging from the mid 50s to lower
60s north and mid to upper 60s south. Skies will remain clear
Friday night as high pressure continues to build in from the west.
Lows will range from the mid 30s north to the mid 30s south.
High pressure will crest over the region early Saturday before
slipping off to the southeast. Return flow will bring even warmer
air into the region which will persist into Monday. Looking for
highs both days in the mid 60s to lower 70s under mostly sunny
Slow moving cold front will approach from the west on Monday
bringing increasing clouds and a chance of afternoon showers in
the mountains and Connecticut valley. Moisture and forcing along
this boundary will be rather limited so any shower activity should
be light and spotty. Highs will once again top out well above normal
reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
short term...VFR tonight through Wednesday night except for some
patchy River Valley fog both nights. Areas of low level wind shear are expected
tonight as a 30-40 kt southerly low level jet develops over
portions of the region.
Long term...VFR Thursday through Sunday with areas of IFR/LIFR
ceilings/vsby in morning valley fog.
short term...Small Craft Advisory for ocean waters tonight as southerly winds
increase and gust around 25 kt. Winds should decrease Wednesday
sca's may be needed on Thursday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 am EDT
Wednesday for anz150-152-154.