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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Gray ME
1015 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Synopsis...
high pressure will build in from the west on Sunday and will
shift offshore Sunday night. A cold front will approach from the
west on Monday and will cross the region Monday night. High
pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday and will crest
over the area on Wednesday. A weak cold front will slowly push
southeast into the region Wednesday night and will stall over the
region on Thursday. High pressure will build in from the north
Thursday night and Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
10:15 PM update...
have adjusted pops and weather grids to reflect only isolated
showers possible over the mountains. Additionally some stratiform
rain is possible well offshore. In addition patchy, possibly
dense fog will develop overnight especially in areas which
received rainfall...in mountain valleys...and along the coast.

Temperatures have dropped quickly behind the front thanks in part
to very dry air in place. Have lowered nocturnal hourly grids
several degrees and adjusted the overnight lows slightly. Most
areas have a thin overcast but an area of stratus was working into
the mountains from Canada.



Previous update...
line of damaging storms have moved to the south of the County Warning Area. Drier
weather is expected tonight. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been cancelled.



&&

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/...
showers will die off for most of the County Warning Area after sunset... with
southwest regions being the last to see showers end. As they do
skies will clear allowing patchy valley fog to form.

Sunday a weak ridge of high pressure builds in behind the front.
While temps aloft have decreased surface temperatures will remain
warm with highs in the 80s. Dewpoints will decrease behind the
front. With the weakening pressure gradient a sea breeze should
develop keeping the immediate coasting line in the 70s.

&&

Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
a progressive pattern will develop for next week as the jet
stream moves a series of waves through southern Canada.Monday the
next short wave comes in dropping a front through the region. The
front once again looks to coincide with peak heating which will
allow for the potential for severe storms. Very warm and humid
airmass will be in place ahead of this system with daytime highs
ranging through the 80s north and upper 80s to mid 90s south.

After the front moves through Monday night a period of high
pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly sunny skies
will prevail with a nice seabreeze again forming for the coast.

As we move towards the end of the week forecast confidence
decreases markedly. Previous deterministic models had hinted at a
large wet system moving in for Thursday and Friday, however
current guidance is all over the map with a low center ranging
from the Great Lakes to off the coast. While wet seems to be the
trend, the details are too uncertain yet to put much weight in any
of the heavier rainfall scenarios and have gone with just a 50
pop. Beyond the wet end of the week guidance hints at a sunny
weekend... however put low confidence in all of this extended
forecast for the moment.

&&

Aviation /02z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term...storms have ended. After sunset look for VFR through
the weekend except for patchy LIFR/IFR fog tonight into early
tomorrow morning over the CT River Valley, near hie and leb, and
along the coasts.

Long term...VFR Sunday night. VFR on Monday with areas of MVFR
ceilings and vsby in showers and thunderstorms. VFR Tuesday and
Wednesday

&&

Marine...
short term...winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory.

Long term...no problems noted.

&&

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$

Near term...Hanes
short term...Curtis
long term...ekster

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