Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kgyx 200530
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
130 am EDT Wed Jun 20 2018
today another cold front will drop south with a few afternoon
clouds and scattered showers confined to northern and mountain
sections. The front will exit to our south by Thursday morning
with even cooler and drier Canadian air for later in the week.
The next disturbance approaches from the west for the weekend
with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Near term /through today/...
a short wave with very limited moisture drives southeast toward
the mountains later this afternoon with some clouds and maybe a
brief shower over those areas. Elsewhere mostly sunny skies can
be expected. Temps will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Thursday/...
the short wave drives southeast through the region overnight
with an associated cold front. Some clouds may be associated
with the front but dry conditions are expected over southern and
central sections with the frontal passage. Models in good
agreement on this dry scenario. Overnight lows will range from
the upper 40s in the mountains to 50s elsewhere.
Thursday a cool and very dry air mass with low dewpoints are
expected as Canadian high pressure builds southeast and becomes
centered over the area. Skies will be sunny and winds will be
light allowing afternoon seabreezes to develop along the coast.
Highs Thursday will be mostly in the 70s.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
high pressure will allow for fair and dry conditions Thursday
night, before this system slides off the coast on Friday. A
developing southerly flow will allow for slightly milder
readings by Friday afternoon.
Over the weekend, an upper level trough will bring scattered
showers and possibly afternoon thunderstorms to the region on
Saturday. This system will be a slow mover, crossing just north
of the forecast area on Sunday. This will allow for more
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the period.
A sharpening upper level trough will cross New England Sunday
night. Behind this system, high pressure will build over the
Great Lakes region for early next week. This will allow for
seasonably cool and dry air to enter the region on
Aviation /04z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term...VFR conditions.
Long term...mainly VFR conditions through the period. However,
there will be lowering ceilings and visibilities in scattered
showers and any thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
short term...winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions
Long term...an area of low pressure will track north of the
waters over the weekend. This will allow south to southwesterly
winds to increase, with gusts up to 20 kt.