Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service tiyan GU
324 PM chst Wed Jul 27 2016
a few showers are seen across the marianas. A couple of thunderstorms
developed earlier in the marianas waters, but those have since
dissipated or moved off. Deeper convection is found well west of the
area near a surface trough while thick high-level clouds are found
north of Saipan.
a couple of surface troughs are still expected to pass through the area
the next several days. As they move through, they are expected to bring
a small increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms. By mid next
week, models show another trough approaching the area. However, GFS and
European model (ecmwf) differ in the overall look of things with GFS opting for a drier
outlook while European model (ecmwf) brings a weak circulation and more moisture to the
region beginning Tuesday. For now have left the long-term forecast
mostly untouched, but once models begin to converge on a solution,
there will be better justification for adjusting the long-term forecast
if need be.
regional buoys show seas between 2 and 4 feet. With little change in
swell components and winds expected to remain gentle the next several
days, little change is expected in seas or surf. This will maintain
a low risk of rip currents the next several days.
a surface trough continues its slow trek west across the eastern region.
Currently between Kosrae and Pohnpei, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen across kwajalein atoll to just north of Kosrae
and south and east of Pohnpei. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
are seen ahead of the trough at Pohnpei and Chuuk while much drier
weather is in the wake of the trough at Majuro. GFS shows a trade-wind
convergence setting up Thursday and Friday near Majuro and spreading
west towards the weekend that will keep conditions relatively wetter
in the long term. Otherwise...no discernible weather features are
depicted across the region through the weekend.
reasoning for the Chuuk forecast can be found in the eastern micronesia
A surface trough is generating showers and thunderstorms near Koror and
over Yap. This trough is anchored to a weak tropical disturbance
centered southwest of Koror. Showery weather and generally light south
to southeast winds will persist the next couple days. Drier weather
will build in at Yap and Koror this weekend as the disturbance lifts
north-northwest the next few days. Models do show some gradual
development with this disturbance. Combined seas of 2 to 4 feet and
light winds will persist through the weekend.
West. Aydlett/M. Aydlett