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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 am EDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Synopsis...
broad high pressure will linger over the southeast through the
remainder of the week, supporting plenty of heat and humidity. A
front is expected to remain more or less stationary from the mid
Atlantic through the Ohio Valley.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 320 am: early morning temperatures across the foothills and
Piedmont are very mild, running around 5 degrees warmer than this
time Sunday morning. Given the current temperature trends,
temperatures will begin the day around 5 to 7 degrees above normal.
The warm start and strong insolation should result in temps in the
low 90s around noon, peaking in the mid to upper 90s by mid
afternoon. Heat index values are forecast to range from 101 to 104
across the upper Savannah River valley and across the eastern
Charlotte Metro area.

The western Carolinas will remain on the western edge of a 500 mb ridge
through tonight. The sfc pattern will feature a high over the
Atlantic and a shallow trough over the Piedmont. This pattern should
support a light south-southwest across the region, with periods of calm this
morning and late this evening. Hot temperatures and dewpoints near
70 degrees will yield moderate instability and steep llvl lapse
rates. However, level of free convection are forecast to range from 6.5 to 6.8 kft and
mid level lapse rates generally run at a shallow 5 c/km. NAM
dewpoints appear too high and convection coverage is likely
overdone. Using the Storm Prediction Center sseo and 4 km WRF, I will indicate high chc
to low likely across the mtns, chc to schc across the foothills and
western Piedmont, with no mentionable pops east of I-77. Dcape
values should generally range from 1000-1500 j/kg across the County Warning Area.
The severe weather potential statement will highlight general tsras with one or two producing
damaging wet microbursts. In addition, the severe weather potential statement will mention heat
index values approaching heat advisory levels from the Savannah
River valley east to clt.

Tonight, thunderstorms will gradually dissipate after sunset.
However, a few storms may linger over the mtns through most of the
overnight. Temperatures should slowly cool across the County Warning Area under a
blanket of dissipating debris clouds. Areas of afternoon and early
evening rain may see patchy fog develop.

&&

Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
as of 310 am Monday, the subtropical ridge will remain the dominant
synoptic scale feature across the southeast during the short term.
Surface reflection/Bermuda high will support plenty of heat and
humidity across our area for the foreseeable future. A Lee trough and
the usual terrain effects will provide the primary source of lift
for initiating deep convection Tue afternoon. Buoyancy profiles are
quite impressive across the mountains during this time, and 50-60
pops appear warranted. There are some hints that surface dewpoints
could mix out outside the mtns in response to westerly flow, but at
least scattered activity should push off the high terrain by as
dewpoints begin to recover by evening.

Instability profiles continues to improve over a larger area on Wed,
while a surface boundary associated with Midwest height falls will
approach the area from the northwest. Thus, while more convection is likely
to initiate across the forecast area Wed afternoon, there will also
be an increasing chance for frontal activity to push into the
mountains during the late afternoon/evening. Another round of 50-60
pops will be forecast for the mtns, with 30-40 percent chances
across much of the foothills and Piedmont. Wind shear profiles will
remain weak through the period, thus chances for organized
convection will be small. However, increasing coverage of
convection, along with healthy downdraft cape forecasts will likely
result in increasing chances for microbursts into mid-week. Temps
will remain a good 5 degrees above climo through the period.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 210 PM Sunday...little to no change in the pattern or sensible
weather is anticipated late week into the weekend, as Bermuda high
pressure continues to support at least seasonal levels of heat/
humidity/instability, while weak synoptic scale boundary is expected
to remain draped in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley. The only
potential break in the monotony would be a weak disturbance that
global model guidance is trying to develop within a weakness in the
subtropical ridge across the northwest Gulf of Mexico later this
week. Moisture associated with this feature could get advected north
toward the end of the week, as a weak mid-level wave moves out of
the plains. However, even the more aggressive guidance keeps the
deeper moisture west of our forecast area through day 7. Overall,
near to slightly above climo pops and near to slightly above climo
temps look to be the most likely scenario for days 4-7.

&&

Aviation /08z Monday through Friday/...
at kclt and elsewhere east of the mtns: VFR through the period.
Rainfall coverage was outside of the foothill and Piedmont taf
sites, potential for fog this morning is low. The
western Carolinas will remain on the western edge of a 500 mb ridge
through tonight. The sfc pattern will feature a high over the
Atlantic and a shallow trough over the Piedmont. This pattern should
support a light south-southwest across the region, with periods of calm this
morning and late this evening. Temperatures will begin the day
around 5 to 7 degrees above normal. The warm start and strong
insolation should result in temps in the low 90s around noon,
peaking in the mid 90s by mid afternoon. Hot temperatures and
dewpoints near 70 degrees will yield moderate instability and steep
llvl lapse rates. However, level of free convection are forecast to range from 6.5 to 6.8
kft and mid level lapse rates generally run at a shallow 5 c/km. NAM
dewpoints appear too high and convection coverage is likely
overdone. Using the Storm Prediction Center sseo and 4 km WRF, I will limit pops east of
the mtns and keep convection out of the taf.

Kavl: the terminal did not receive measurable rainfall on Sunday.
At 6z, dewpoint depression was only 2 c. Based on the forecast rate
of cooling through sunrise, it appears that the crossover
temperature will be reached during the predawn hours. I will
indicate a tempo from 8z to 12z for MVFR fog and sct005. Ridgetop
convection should trigger during the mid morning, drifting over the
valleys between 20z to 24z. I will highlight the potential for thunderstorms and rain
with a prob30 during expected period. Otherwise, winds will vary
from calm early this morning to northwest during the morning daylight, SW
expected during the afternoon.

Outlook: isolated/scattered afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue across the mountains/Piedmont through
much of the week - with coverage increasing a bit each day. Morning
fog and low stratus will continue in the mountain valleys around
daybreak each day, and also be possible in locations that receive
heavy rainfall the preceding afternoon/evening.

Confidence table...

07-13z 13-19z 19-01z 01-06z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 92% high 92%
kavl high 96% high 100% high 83% high 100%
khky high 96% high 100% high 100% high 91%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 92% high 92%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled taf issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Www.Weather.Gov/gsp/aviation

&&

Climate...

Records for 07-25

Maximum temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kavl 92 2010 68 2000 70 2012 51 1895
2005 2011
1987 2010
kclt 101 2010 69 2000 79 2010 62 1947
kgsp 100 1995 72 2000 77 2010 57 1911
1890




Records for 07-26

Maximum temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kavl 94 1949 72 1911 71 2012 49 1911
1940 2010
kclt 100 2005 74 1920 76 1992 60 1904
1940 1940
1914 1936
kgsp 99 2010 76 1920 76 2005 53 1911
1995 1940
1987



&&

Gsp watches/warnings/advisories...
Georgia...none.
NC...none.
SC...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jdl
near term...Ned
short term...jdl
long term...jdl
aviation...Ned
climate...

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