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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
505 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 25 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00z taf issuance

Short term...tonight and Wednesday
issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Main forecast focus remains on the incoming swath of precipitation
and trying to determine how much rain will fall with this system.

The 19z msas surface analysis showed a broad area of high pressure
that stretched from northern Ontario south-southeast through the
Great Lakes to the Ohio River valley. Several weak areas of low
pressure were situated on the Lee-side of The Rockies from
southwest South Dakota to northeast nm. A tightening pressure gradient
between all of these systems has allowed winds to start increasing
across the plains. Radar mosaic indicated a narrow band of rain
showers that extended from ND southeast through southwest WI to
southern Ohio. This precipitation has not moved much in any
direction so far today.

Models concur in consolidating and moving a weak area of low
pressure from the Central Plains to the upper MS valley/Midwest
tonight. In addition, a strengthening mid-level trough of low
pressure is expected to move from the central rockies across the
Central Plains tonight. The influx of Gulf moisture ahead of these
systems will send precipitable water values to almost one inch by daybreak into
northeast Wisconsin, however this moisture will be fighting a dry
air mass from the retreating surface high. Models show the
moisture gradually winning out after midnight with rain showers
lifting north into central/east-central Wisconsin during the pre-
dawn hours. Northern Wisconsin should remain dry for most of the
night with precipitation arriving around sunrise. Min temperatures
to range from the lower 30s far north, to around 40 degrees south.

The surface low is expected to track east-northeast along a warm
front draped over far southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois by
00z Thursday. Meanwhile, the mid-level trough will lift northeast
into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday and provide for
increasing q-g and frontogenetical forcing over WI. Precipitable water values over
central/east-central Wisconsin remain around one inch, thus a
soaking rain is anticipated with quantitative precipitation forecast amounts of 1-2 inches by
Wednesday evening. It will also be a blustery day with east winds
at 10 to 20 mph north, 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph south.
Temperatures are not expected to rise much with upper 30s to lower
40s north, lower to middle 40s south.

Long term...Wednesday night through Tuesday
issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Zonal flow will persist across the region, with the midweek system
exiting early, and two additional Pacific systems affecting the
forecast area during the extended period. The Pacific origin of
the systems should ensure that precipitation amounts will be on
the light side, and temperatures will be near to above normal.
Fast zonal flow will also lead to typical timing issues, which
will be handled by sticking with the preferred model blend.

Low pressure will move through northern Illinois as a short-wave trof
shifts through the western Great Lakes Wednesday evening. Showers
will taper off as this system tracks east. Aside from a few
lingering showers near Door County on Thursday, dry conditions
should prevail.

Strong warm air advection is expected to develop Thursday night into Friday,
with a low-level jet cranking up to 40 to 50 kts on Friday.
Despite a lack of moisture, there may be enough forcing to
generate some showers over northern WI Thursday night through
Friday night, with a cold frontal passage bringing a better chance
to the entire region Saturday into Saturday night.

A brief period of dry weather is anticipated on Sunday before
strong warm air advection brings another chance of rain Sunday night into
Monday, followed by another cold frontal passage Monday night.

Aviation...for 00z taf issuance
issued at 505 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours as a ridge
of high pressure drifts northeast of the state. A low pressure
system will approach the the Great Lakes region later tonight and
then deepen while tracking over the state Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Conditions are expected to deteriorate from west
to east tonight, with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs and IFR/MVFR vsbys
due to rain on Wednesday. Increasing winds in the boundary level
will create gusty surface winds along with periods of low level wind shear
conditions late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term.....AK
long term......kieckbusch

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