Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
554 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Surface to 850 mb high pressure will settle over the area for the
weekend for an overall dry quiet weather regime.

Early this morning the nearest convection was a west to east line of
showers and storms extending from lower Lake Michigan eastward
into lower Michigan. This convection is associated with the slowly
moving upper trough gradually lifting northeastward today into
tonight. This upper trough brought locally heavy rainfall to east
central Wisconsin Thursday night. Mentioned this feature because
of the proximity of the showers spreading northward into parts of
central Michigan. The nam is the most aggressive with brushing
some qpf into the manitowoc lakeshore region tonight while the
remainder of the models confine any convection well east of the
area.

Temperatures will be a bit warmer today and Sunday with a bit
more sunshine. Anticipate some diurnal sct-bkn cu again today and
Sunday as surface dewpoints remain in the 50s over most locations.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Zonal flow at 500mb will continue through the period. Temperatures
through much of the period will be at or above normal during the
upcoming work week. Looking to Monday night and Tuesday, the
gfs/canadian model have come into better agreement with showers
and thunderstorms moving into our western counties by 12z Tuesday.
Have trimmed or removed rain chances across the northeast portions 
of the forecast area for Monday night. However, the new 00z ECMWF
model has trended the convection along the warm front further
south and would not make it into our western counties until after
12z. Remnants of the convection along the warm front and northern
stream system will bring a chance of showers and storms on
Tuesday. 

Tuesday night should be mainly dry as weak high pressure builds
into the area. Much of the area may remain dry on Wednesday with
only isolated showers and storms possible. Attention turns to cold
front Thursday afternoon and evening. This feature has the possibility
of bringing strong or severe storms to the area along with torrential
rainfall.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

For the morning hours, mid level clouds will linger over parts of
Central Wisconsin this morning while patchy mvfr fog over North
Central Wisconsin will diminish around 14z. Otherwise high
pressure ridging into Northeast Wisconsin will produce mainly vfr
conditions today into tonight. A period of diurnal cu at sct-bkn035
will be possible between 15z and 21z.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......TDH

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations