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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
1220 am MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Short term...(today through Friday night)
issued at 1220 am MDT Wed Oct 26 2016 of 590 upper high resides over southwest New
Mexico with ridge axis extending north-northeast along the
Continental Divide. May see some cirrus from time to time otherwise
clear. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Thursday-Thursday of 590 upper high slowly moves east
into West Texas during the day as upper trough approaches the West
Coast. The upper high holds firm for the overnight hours with West
Coast trough moving little. Any cloudiness would be limited to
cirrus level. Will have to monitor areas east of a line from around
McCook to Gove after midnight as boundary layer moisture increases
from the east possibly creating some low clouds and fog. Afternoon
temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with low
temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Friday-Friday night...upper high centered over much of Texas and low
pressure off the northwest coast has the forecast area under
southwest flow aloft. Storm track keeps the better moisture north
and west of the area leaving US dry. High temperatures warm into the
low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

An upper level ridge remains the dominant feature in the long term,
leading to a dry forecast for the entire period. Temperatures are
generally above normal through at least the weekend, with cooler
air anticipated to move in by Tuesday.

Wednesday night through Friday night: dry weather persists across
the region. The upper ridge rebuilds and continues to progress
towards the plains through Thursday. A weak shortwave moves from the
Pacific coast towards the northern plains on Friday, flattening the
ridge and sending a cold front south. Still do not expect any
precipitation with this front due to the dry air mass in place. Will
keep an eye on fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, but at
this time, it appears the drier air and stronger winds will not be
collocated. Additionally, dry air does make it further into our
forecast area from Colorado on Friday, so will continue to monitor
this day as well.

Saturday through tuesday: the cold front traverses the High Plains
late Friday/early Saturday as the northern plains disturbance
continues north of the region. The ridge quickly redevelops behind
this system and persists over the area through Sunday. Another
shortwave advances from the Pacific northwest to the northern plains
on Monday, pushing the high pressure to the southeastern Continental U.S. And
bringing cooler air to the region. The shortwave continues traveling
northeast into Canada on Tuesday, and southwesterly flow develops
aloft over the area. Pops remain near zero during this timeframe.

Temperatures: highs start out mainly in the low/mid 80s on Thursday
and Friday, followed by a gradual cooling trend into next week.
Saturday and Sunday have temperatures generally in the mid to upper
70s. Another cold front decreases temperatures early next week, with
highs in the 60s on Tuesday. The period begins with lows mostly in
the 40s to low 50s Wednesday through Friday nights. They then follow
the aforementioned trend, dropping into the mid 30s to mid 40s in
time for Monday night.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1039 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions expected for the tafs. Light northwest winds will
continue into Wednesday afternoon. During the afternoon a surface
high will move through causing the winds to become variable until
the early evening.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...99
long term...jbh

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