Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kgld 251103
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
403 am MST Sat Feb 25 2017
Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 148 am MST Sat Feb 25 2017
Across the tri state region this morning...skies are mainly clear W/
some mid level cloud cover streaming thru portions of the area.
Overall for temps...region is seeing a range of single numbers above
zero to the mid teens. Warmer temps are seen where mid level cloud
deck pushes thru. Some light wind is being seen but with little help
in mixing to keep temps up.
The cold start to this morning will give way to a decent day across
the forecast area as most locales will see msunny conditions with a
westerly downslope surface wind. Even with the given conditions...
region will still see highs reaching just below normal with a range
from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Warmest locales today will be in
Going into tonight...weak shortwave moving over the region will give
most areas increased cloud cover on west-northwest mid level flow. Surface
ridging approaches from the northwest behind shortwave...so will trend north/northwest
zones a bit colder than rest of County Warning Area as some clearing will ensue.
Light winds will also aid in dropping temps to a range mainly in the
teens...coldest north and west.
Going into Sunday and next Monday...the passage of the shortwave
tonight will give way to 500 mb zonal flow Sunday and SW flow on Monday
as a stronger trough works into The Rockies from the Pacific coast.
Another weak shortwave from this trough will move eastward across
the northern fringe of the County Warning Area Monday night. Locales there will see
increased cloud cover with a slight chance for -SW along the
Nebraska border. Little to no accum expected.
Temps for Sunday into Monday night will have highs range Sunday near
the same as Saturday...and on Monday W/ a 50-55f range. Overnight
lows will mainly be in a range of upper teens into the 20s...warmest
With the cold overnight low temps...some concerns for wind chill
effects for those outdoors. For tonight...wind chill readings will
range mainly in the single numbers above zero. Sunday night...wind
chill readings will range in the single numbers to the mid
teens...worst potential conditions west. For Monday night...wind
chill readings will be mainly in the teens. For all 3 overnight
period though...the aforementioned numbers will mainly occur after
midnight towards sunrise.
Long term...(tuesday through saturday)
issued at 200 am MST Sat Feb 25 2017
The models are showing two system that will influence our region at
the start of the extended period. The first one... develops east of
The Rockies early Tuesday morning and moves towards the northeast.
This system will produce precipitation mostly north of our County Warning Area. The
second system... develops just west of the Texas Panhandle... off
of the tail of the first system that I mention. This second system
will also move towards the northeast across the High Plains...
however... this one will have the greater impact over our region.
This second system will start our producing mixed precipitation
starting Tuesday afternoon... then becoming snow showers
overnight... before tapering off Wednesday morning. Any
accumulation... if any... at this time looks to be below a half
Dry conditions are expected to return to the region for the rest of
the period as high pressure influence the area.
High temperatures will remain in the middle 40s to the lower 50s for
most of the week then increase to the middle 60s over the
weekend. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to upper 20s
through out the period.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 403 am MST Sat Feb 25 2017
Conditions...VFR W/ sct-bkn070-250.
Winds........for kgld...west-southwest around 10kts thru 23z this afternoon...
then northwest around 10kts. By 02z Sunday...light and variable going
thru 08z Sunday...then northwest 5-10kts.
For kmck...west-southwest around 5-10kts thru 04z Sunday...then light and
variable. By 08z Sunday...west-southwest 5-10kts.