Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgld 221100 
afdgld

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
400 am MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Short term...(today through Friday night)
issued at 144 am MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Across the tri state region this morning...skies are a clear to
partly cloudy mix as a veil of mid/high clouds works south-southeast off the
central rockies/northern plains region. Temperatures are mainly in
the 20s...with a few locales around 30-32f. Winds are mainly light
from the south-southwest.

For today and on thru Friday night...dry conditions are expected for
the area as 500 mb/700 mb ridging remains in place for the western portion
of the country. Models carry a shortwave over the ridge
Friday/Friday night. As this system works thru the plains
region...the County Warning Area will see a cold front move thru the area.

With the strong ridging in place over the next 72 hours...the area
will see above normal daytime temps. Today the area will see temps
in the 60s...to be replaced mostly by the 70s for Thursday and
Friday...tempered only by approaching cold front Friday from the northwest
as the shortwave works off the central rockies. For Thursday/
Friday...these numbers will be 25-30 degrees above normal. Records
are possible to be broken in some areas each day. Please refer to
the climate section below for further info.

Overnight lows will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s tonight and
Thursday night. By Friday night the passage of the cold front will
usher in another round of cold air advection that will allow for lows to drop to
around 30f.

Other than the wild temperatures swings the area will see over the
next 72 hours...the only other wx concern will be the strong winds
over the area on Friday/Friday evening on the backside of the
exiting cold front. Gusts 30-35 mph are possible.

Long term...(saturday through wednesday)
issued at 150 am MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected this
weekend as upper level ridging continues to dominate the large scale
pattern in the western US and central rockies. Western US ridge is
shown to transition eastward as positively tilted trough digs into
the western US through the weekend into early next week. There are
some model variances on timing of eventual trough passage and it's
associated front Monday through Monday night which could impact
temps. If front slows down we could see record high temperatures
Monday with strong warm air advection in deep southwest flow (h85 temps 20-21c).
All guidance continues to show a prohibitively dry air mass in place
and the main forcing associated with this trough splitting around
our County Warning Area. Temperatures should be closer to seasonal normals behind
this trough (next Tuesday and wednesday).

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 400 am MST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions expected for both taf sites thru the forecast
period. Winds for kgld...SW around 10kts becoming west-northwest around
10kts by 20z this afternoon. Winds for kmck...lgt/var thru 16z
then SW around 10kts. By 23z...west around 10kts.

&&

Climate...
issued at 144 am MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday 11/23...and
Friday 11/24:

Thursday Friday

Goodland Kansas 72f in 1925 82f in 1910

McCook NE 72f in 2005 72f in 1995

Burlington Colorado 72f in 1925 75f in 2012

Hill City Kansas 72f in 2005 73f in 1923

Colby Kansas 84f in 1998 75f in 1915

Tribune Kansas 82f in 1998 76f in 1942

Yuma Colorado 76f in 2002 73f in 1990

&&

Gld watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
Colorado...none.
NE...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations