Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kgld 271118
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
418 am MST Mon Feb 27 2017
Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 242 am MST Mon Feb 27 2017
Across the tri state region this morning...skies are clear with
temperatures ranging from the mid teens up to the mid 20s. Many
locales are seeing a southerly wind this morning...aiding in the
For today...a shortwave trough resides over eastern portions of
Colorado with high pressure east of the County Warning Area. This will keep a
decent southerly gradient over the area thru the day. Full
sunshine and dry conditions will allow for temps to reach into the
50s...with some locales even getting into the lower 60s.
Accompanying these warm temps will be low dewpts...especially for
the afternoon hrs. With these expected conditions...low relative humidity
readings will creep into SW/west portions of the County Warning Area. Gradient winds
will gusting in the 25-30 mph range...prompting a red flag
For tonight and on into the evening hrs Tuesday...the tri state
region will be set for a quick moving shortwave and associated
surface low/front combo. Models have trended lower on expected qpf
due to track W/ deeper moisture staying out ahead of system well
to our east. Based on current/expected temps leading into the
precip...looking for light rain transitioning to light snow from
west to east before tapering off. Not expecting much in the way
of any snow accum...with a half inch or less. Surface low/front
even now set up further south of the County Warning Area before lifting in
central Kansas...further aiding in qpf deficit.
Looking for overnight lows to range in the 20s...with daytime
highs before and during the system passage to reach into the
40s...aided by decent waa on SW/S flow.
For late Tuesday night on through Wednesday night...system pushing
thru the region and will exit the County Warning Area towards Wednesday morning.
Going into Wednesday...clearing and dry conditions will ensue once
more over the region. Expecting highs dropping back into the 40s
for Wednesday as some cooler air remains over the area. Overnight
lows will drop into the 20s.
Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 148 am MST Mon Feb 27 2017
Dry conditions are expected during the extended period. The pattern
the models are showing support a very dry air mass, and despite a
few weak shortwave trough passages conditions will remain dry. The
upper-level flow starts out from the northwest then becomes westerly-
southwesterly by the end of the period. High temperatures on
Thursday will be near seasonal normals. While on Friday... highs
will reach into the 60s as a Lee trough redevelops. Strong warm air advection will
move over the region through the weekend producing highs in the
upper 60s to around 70.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 418 am MST Mon Feb 27 2017
Conditions...VFR W/ mainly sct-bkn150-250.
Winds........for kgld...south-southwest around 10kts thru 09z Tuesday. Gusts
to 20kts 19z-00z. From 09z Tuesday Onward...northwest around 10kts.
For kmck...south-southwest around 10kts thru 09z Tuesday...then northwest around
Low level wind shear(llws)...for kgld 12z-19z 180@40kts. For kmck
12z-16z 180@35kts...and again from 02z-09z Tuesday around
issued at 242 am MST sun Feb 26 2017
Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon
generally along and south of Interstate 70...and along and west
of Highway 27. In this area relative humidity is expected to fall
below 20 percent...with southwest winds gusting 20-30 mph. The
affected timeframe will be from 18z Monday to 00z Tuesday.
Kansas...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for ksz013-027-041.
Colorado...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for coz253-254.