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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
207 am MDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 152 am MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The shortwave trough that brought areas of heavy rain and
resulting flooding will continue moving east and out of the area
this morning. In its wake plenty of moisture and deformation aloft
will help fire scattered showers and thunderstorms generally from
the bookcliffs and Flattops southeast. The area of deformation
will continue moving east overnight and precipitation will focus
more toward the Continental Divide and over the San Juan

On Thursday another trough will move into the Great Basin and the
southwest gradient aloft will strengthen over the area. Areal
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and because of
the shear aloft and dynamics ahead of the trough, some stronger
storms will be possible.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The European model (ecmwf) and gfs20 remain in good agreement through the forecast
period. Both models slide a trough of low pressure across the
northern rockies Friday night into Sunday which will drag a
boundary across our forecast area Friday night into Saturday,
spurring on another round of showers and thunderstorms. Beginning
Sunday high pressure begins to build over Utah and Colorado
ushering in a dry weather pattern through next Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 152 am MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Layered clouds and areas of light rain will continue across the
area this morning. Ceilings will occasionally reach ils
breakpoints at kege and kase. This afternoon VFR conditions will
continue but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
cause local mountain top obscurations and ceilings occasionally dropping
to ils breakpoints at kase, kege, and kril until about 03z.
Thereafter conditions will improve from west to east.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...cirrocumulus
long term...Larry

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