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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
954 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Short term...(tonight through Saturday night)
issued at 255 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

A weak disturbance passing through north central Colorado will
bring some cloud cover, a few flurries and even a few strikes of
lightning before conditions quickly dry by midnight. Cooler air
aloft will bring temperatures in the north central mountains down
compared to this morning, while cloud cover across the valleys
should keep temperatures in the Hayden to Steamboat corridor
fairly similar to this morning. Breezy northwest flow aloft, due
to a 100+ kt jet overhead, will keep conditions breezy in the
high country of NE Utah through early Saturday morning and into
the mid afternoon hours across western Colorado. Winds will
subside west to east throughout the day Saturday as the ulj pushes
eastward, and temperatures will quickly rebound across the north
to well above normal again. Temperatures elsewhere will remain 10
to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year over the next few
days.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 255 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

High pressure brings clear skies back to eastern Utah and western Colorado
on Sunday before forecast models Promise a change in the pattern.
Better consistency is developing in the models on a high
amplitude trough moving eastward onto the western US coast Sunday
night. A closed low is anticipated to reach The Four Corners
Monday night and from there the storm track diverges in the
forecast models. The GFS takes the closed low into northern nm by
Tuesday, but the ec shifts the closed low into the central Colorado
mountains. Without a resolve in the storm track, confidence is low
on the impacts on Tuesday with this system. The core of this
system at 700mb is progged to be around -2c or -3c, which normally
translates to snow level at about 7500 feet. Wherever the closed
low does track, convection associated with dynamic lifting should
push the snow level lower than normally expected in stronger
showers. Past Tuesday, models diverge rapidly but there is some
indication of another quick weather system dropping down from the
northwest mid week. Temperatures will drop to more seasonable
values by the middle of next week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 948 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Scattered showers in NE Colorado will dissipate overnight as a
fast moving cold front departs to the east. Ceilings near 10k
feet will also lift overnight at kase, kcag, and kril. Scattered
clouds will persist through the night and into early Saturday as
high pressure takes hold. Significant aviation hazards are not
expected at this time.

&&

Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...
Colorado...none.
Utah...none.
&&

$$

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