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FXUS63 KGID 282303

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
603 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Scattered showers have developed across central and west central 
Nebraska this afternoon. These are aided by a weak perturbation that 
is best visualized on the 305K isentropic surface. RAP and HRRR 
soundings also show as much as 500 J of CAPE for western parts of 
the area, so I've included a chance of thunder for areas along and 
west of Highway 281. This activity is expected to dissipate late 
this afternoon as we lose diurnal heating and as this feature moves 
to our southeast. 

Later tonight, another such wave will move from north to south 
across the area, bringing us another chance for light showers. This 
should exit our Kansas counties tomorrow morning. Overall, any rain 
accumulation will be minimal. 

Tomorrow afternoon, expect another day of breezy northwest winds and 
highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Overall, there is little change in this forecast from the previous 

Chances for thunderstorms return to north-central Kansas on 
Tuesday as a warm front starts lifting northward and stalls in 
that area. Models are showing 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE in that 
vicinity along with around 40 kts of bulk shear. Therefore a 
strong storm isn't out of the question. The main uncertainty is 
how far north storms can make it. The GFS certainly looks to keep 
the best of the instability in central Kansas. 

Our best chance for thunderstorms arrives late Wednesday 
afternoon into Thursday morning as this front lifts northward, 
aided by an intensifying low-level jet. While this doesn't look 
particularly favorable for severe weather, the GFS does show 
1500-2000 j/kg of MUCAPE and a 50 kt low-level jet to work with so
this trend will need to be monitored by upcoming shifts. 

Temperature-wise, we will see seasonably warm conditions. Highs in 
the 70s and low 80s...possibly reaching the mid 80s Thursday and 
Friday as we stay in warm southerly flow. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Isolated to scattered showers have dotted the area this afternoon
with the next round of potential rain showers and possibly a
thunderstorm arriving later this evening and into tonight as an
upper disturbance crosses the plains. With the potential for
convection, have went with a VCSH in the tafs at this time. The 
gusty winds of today will subside tonight but increase again on 
Memorial in deep mixing. 





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