Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgid 231123 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 am CDT Tue may 23 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 331 am CDT Tue may 23 2017

An upper low is currently centered over Minnesota, and is
forecast to steadily move southward today into Iowa. As it does
so, it will advect cooler air into the area, both at the surface
and aloft. This will make for favorable low-level lapse rates this
afternoon. Coupled with some weak vorticity advection, it should
be enough for scattered light showers and mostly cloudy skies,
mainly during the afternoon hours. Without any appreciable
instability, we shouldn't see any thunder, so impact from these
showers should be minimal.

Also of concern today will be the breezy northwest winds that
will likely gust to around 30 miles per hour for most of the afternoon hours.
This will make today feel quite cool, especially when coupled
with high temperatures only around 60 degrees.

There is some question on low temperatures for tonight. Skies
will start to clear and winds will start to decrease from west to
east as high pressure builds in, but lows will depend heavily on
how quickly this happens. I think lows will drop into the 30s out
west, but should stay just above frost criteria (36 degrees).

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 331 am CDT Tue may 23 2017

Overview...we are looking at a pretty solid dry period from
Wednesday through Thursday morning. We then expect off and on
chances for thunderstorms across at least some portion of the
forecast area from Thursday afternoon through next Monday. Most of
these rain chances will be fairly low. At this point there are no
obvious severe weather outbreak kind of days in the extended period,
but can not rule out some isolated severe thunderstorms at some
point, just the predictability is too low. Temperatures will be on a
warming trend with highs in the mid to upper 60s for Wednesday and
then pretty much in the 70s thereafter.

Wednesday through Thursday night...there will be an upper level
ridge over the region on Wednesday while the next upper trough will
track into the High Plains by late in the day on Thursday. Wednesday
and most of Thursday will be dry for most areas. Will primarily
have to watch for thunderstorms Thursday night as they track east
off the High Plains. Currently our southwestern zones stand the best
chance of catching any thunderstorms that can hold together coming
in from the west.

Friday into the Holiday upper trough will track east
across central Canada extending south into the northern plains.
Weak short waves will rotate through this upper trough pattern and
could bring US periodic generally small chances for showers and
thunderstorms, although most of the period will be dry. For the most
part we never really tap into good Gulf moisture during this period
and thus widespread heavy rain is not very likely, in other words,
we are not expecting a repeat of last week.


Aviation...(for the 12z kgri/kear tafs through 12z wednesday)
issued at 617 am CDT Tue may 23 2017

Overcast skies are in the process of moving back into central
Nebraska from the north. There are a few sprinkles near Ord
currently, but it is unlikely that they affect the taf sites this
morning. Scattered light rain showers should develop this
afternoon as an upper level shortwave pushes south through
Nebraska. Northwest winds will gust to 25-30 kts as well.

Showers come to an end this evening. Skies will clear and winds
will become light overnight.


Gid watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations