Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS63 KGID 261105
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
605 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Low clouds, fog and drizzle will persist into the morning hours, 
then chances for rain increase across Kansas and far southern 
Nebraska this afternoon/tonight.

The pattern aloft placed the Central Plains in shortwave ridging 
in between an upper low pressure systems in Colorado and 
Missouri. At the surface, a high pressure ridge axis extended into
central and eastern Nebraska. Low level moisture and low cloud 
cover remain prevalent across our region through the pre dawn 
hours and visibilities were reduced to 1 to 3 miles in drizzle and
fog across the majority of our area. The low clouds/visibilities 
and drizzle potential will continue through the morning, followed 
by improving conditions during the afternoon as the eastern upper 
low pressure system and surface ridge axis migrate eastward. 
Afternoon temperatures will trend up compared to Saturday as cloud
ceilings gradually raise and highs are forecast to average in the
50s.

Chances for rain increase across our southern zones this afternoon 
into tonight as the upper low presure system in Colorado translates 
east across Kansas. The latest day one outlook places our southern 
zones in the general thunder category however model progged 
instability is weak and have kept thunder out of the forecast. A 
cool frontal boundary may initiate rain across western Neb/Kansas
this evening but models suggest this will dissipate before 
reaching our area. Also there is some indication among model 
guidance for the redevelopment of fog tonight. Confidence is not 
high regarding this given a wind shift to the north behind a cool 
front, but have left in some patchy fog for our northern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The main story in the for next week is the multiple opportunities 
for rain.

After a dry and seasonably pleasant day on Monday, precipitation 
chances gradually return to the area from west to east on Tuesday 
into Tuesday night ahead of the next storm system ejecting out of 
the southwest. Periods of rain will likely continue through 
Wednesday as well. There is still some uncertainty on precipitation 
coverage on Thursday. GFS takes the 500 mb low west to east across 
KS and northern OK, while the EC brings the low northeast across 
eastern Nebraska. The latter solution would push the deformation-
band precipitation across central Nebraska, while the former would 
keep mostly all precipitation across KS. Like yesterday, I'm siding 
with the EC solution and will keep at least slight PoPs across the 
entire CWA through the day Thursday. Instability looks pretty 
insignificant for the entire forecast period, so have kept any 
mention of thunder out. 

It is looking like Friday will remain dry as the area is between the 
departing system and another low digging into Arizona. This next 
system will bring chances for precipitation back into the area 
starting on Saturday. Like the previous system, the EC track is more 
favorable for precipitation than the GFS, which dives the low across 
southern TX into northern Mexico. Since this is 6 days out, details 
are still likely to change dramatically. 

Temperatures will be very stable through the next week. Highs will 
"only" be in the 50s to low 60s each day, which is actually pretty 
close to normal. The good news is that lows will struggle to drop 
any lower than the mid to upper 30s each night. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Low clouds, fog and drizzle will continue until around mid
morning, then a gradual increase in cloud heights are expected
through the day. Winds will be fairly light and variable the next
24 hours and there is the potential for the redevelopment of low
clouds and fog heading into Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations